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A Harvard University researcher, known for his work on the “Tucidides trap,” says a war between the two world powers is likely but not inevitable: interdependence between the two rivals can help them (or force them) to avoid conflict.
Interdependence between China and the United States in areas such as Economics and climate It can help both powers to avoid a military conflict, says the Academic prominent and specialist in International Relations Graham Allison.
“War between the US and China: Inevitable? No. Is it likely? Yes“Allison said, the founder rector of the John F. Kennedy School of Harvard University and former Assistant Secretary of former President Bill Clinton, at the Harvard College China forum on Sunday.
Allison is known for having popularized the expression “TUCIDIDES” – APA apparent inexorable trend for war between emerging power replacing a great power, already consolidated as hegemonicNo international system.
The term has the name of the former Greek historian Thucydideswhich made a detailed and impartial account of the Peloponnese War between Athens and Sparta.
You were also one of the first to note that people who survived the plague epidemics in Athens were spared during the later outbreaks of the same disease – knowledge that would later be vaccination base.
Beijing considers TUCIDIDES TRACK AS A FUNDAMENTAL FRAMEWORK for the analysis of relationships between China and the US. Among the Chinese elites, including President Xi Jinping, many voices have referred to this idea – although do not consider inevitable the occurrence of a war.
Allison’s speech, recalls, was given after last week the president of the United States, Donald Trump, have additional rates 34% to China, a decision that caused an immediate reaction from Beijing.
This last round of increased customs rates, the third since Trump returned to the White House in January, raised total tariffs About the importation of Chinese products to 54%.
China’s rapid retaliation measures raised concerns that the two powers are entering a even more fierce competitionwhile yours Willingness to negotiate is decreasing.
However, Allison stated that the Interdependence between China and the USAespecially in crucial areas such as the economy, finances and climatecould help both rivals to avoid war.
Allison also points to the concept of Mutual Destructiona doctrine of the cold war that argued that two countries with nuclear weapons tended to avoid conflict because threat of mutual annihilation would dissuade them to start a war.
According to Allison, This strategy continues to apply In relations between the US and China and the interconnection between the two powers surpasses nuclear rule.
“If they give in to your instinct to attack me in the hope of destroying me, they must remember that are committing suicide Also for your own society, ”he said.“ Since survival is a very reliable and robust impulse, it produces a precaution, and must produce a precaution. ”
Allison adds that the probability of China and the United States eventually conflict will be directly influenced by incentives that may have to compete or collaborate.
If Beijing and Washington choose to competesays Graham Allison, we will watch “more fierce rivalry of tucidides that history has ever seen“.
Allison met with Xi In March last year, during a trip to Beijing, where he also met with Chinese diplomacy officials, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi.
“The economies of the US and China are closely linked and only through a peaceful coexistence is that the two countries can achieve their own development and prosperity. The trap of Tuccidides is not inevitable“, Xi said during last year’s meeting.
A granted shortly after his trip to Beijing, Allison warned that the structural pressures of a rising China and a dominant US made the tensions inevitable – that a determined leadership and one sustained communication could avoid.
