While American troops begin to retreat in East Europe, a new balance of power begins to draw. The old continent, used to the protective shadow of the United States of America, is now facing a clear message from Washington, DC: “The problem is yours.” And across the border, Kremlin is taking note
The United States of America are studying the withdrawal of up to 10,000 US troops parked in Poland and Romania. At first glance, it seems a simple military reconfiguration. However, according to experts heard by CNN Portugal, the gesture is a clear – and “worrying” sign – that Washington, DC is reformulating its foreign policy, placing national strategic interests above the historical commitment to European allies.
The moment could not be more sensitive: in the middle of War in Ukraine, with Russia rearfing rapidly and Europe still far from reaching autonomy in defense. After all, what is the price of the new US policy?
According to ups responsible from the US and Europe, cited by, the military to be removed are part of the contingent of 20,000 soldiers highlighted in 2022 by then President Joe Biden, after the invasion of Russia to Ukraine, to reinforce the eastern flank of NATO. Now, the Trump administration, back to the White House with a more pragmatic and less interventionist stance, is studying to reduce this number to half.
In his first official visit to Brussels as Secretary of Defense, he was straightforward: “Strategic realities prevent the United States from being focused on European security,” he said, anticipating that these priorities are now in the Far East, more precisely in China.
The message to the Europeans? “Understand. The problem is yours. Europe has to rear and have to be able to defend itself,” interprets Major-General Isidro de Morais Pereira, in statements to CNN Portugal.
On the ground, the transition has begun. US forces of the temporary base in Jasionka, Poland – so far a fundamental logistics infrastructure in supporting Ukraine. Your management now goes to the Poles and the NATO.
“It’s a matter of efficiency and savings for the US taxpayer,” said General Christopher Donahue of the US Army representation in Europe and Africa.
For experts, it is not just a logistical issue. This decision is proof of a redefinition of Washington’s strategic priorities, DC and a clear warning to Europe: the time has come to “take over the reins of their own security.”
“The American intention is that the European conflict will be surrendered to Europe. We are entertaining, we are watching a dirty dialogue,” says Major General Agostinho Costa.
While the secretary of defense makes clear the removal, on the other, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, as “hysteria” the idea of a European abandonment and ensured that the US “will remain” in the Atlantic alliance.
“There is a discrepancy of dialogue, of discourse, among the various agents of US politics. There has been a great inconstancy in the signs that the executive has given the main lines of their foreign policy,” says Major General Isidro de Morais Pereira.
O Impact
With the eventual US withdrawal, the countries that will be most exposed are, unsurprisingly, those who are most vulnerable to Russia – Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which border Russia, and Romania, which borders the Moldova, where there is an important military contingent of Russia in the separatist region of transnistria.
However, some nations begin to react. Germany, for example, announced the permanent detachment of five thousand soldiers in Lithuania.
“Other countries are already making these commitments,” says Major General Agostinho Costa. However, the expert warns: the strategic void left by the US, which still has 80,000 military personnel on European soil, will be difficult to fill in the short term.
“If there were still doubts about Trump’s true intentions, it is good to get rid of, it is time for European countries to abandon doubts. The United States is not the reliable ally in the past,” says Major General Isidro de Morais Pereira.
Russian reading: weakness or “goodwill”?
This retreat can be read in two ways by Moscow: as a diplomatic opening from the United States or as a sign of European vulnerability. For experts, both readings are valid.
“This position represents a sign of disagreement and goodwill in relation to what are the Russian claims,” says Major General Agostinho Costa.
Major-General Isidro de Morais Pereira agrees: the US decision will give Russia “more freedom to act and put the actions that have in mind” against Europe.
Russia is already modernizing its arsenal and, according to a report by the Denmark Military Information Agency (DDIs), may be ready to launch a new large -scale conflict in Europe over the next five years if NATO does not reinforce its position. That is, peace increasingly depends on European response capacity.
“Europeans have to invest in defense, produce credible armed forces in all countries, create robust and capable European strength. This does not exist right now,” says Major General Isidro de Morais Pereira.
One of the strongest signs of the new geostrategic guidance may be being prepared behind the scenes: that of the Supreme Commander of the NATO Allied Forces (Saceur), traditionally an American general by a European guardian within three to five years.
Since the beginning of the born that this position is held by four US star generals – D. Eisenhower D. Eisenhower, who would later become president. The change would be historical and revealing: less direct military involvement, more pressure for Europe to assume its responsibilities, according to experts.
However, the current US commander this possibility, warning of the risks to the level of nuclear control and control, and the complexity of having US troops under the orders of a non-American general.
Peace? It is not yet in sight. Europe? Wake
The scenario of a ceasefire remains distant. The US want to freeze the conflict and negotiate later. Russia wants to negotiate before it stops. Ukraine, with European support, still dreams of recovering the busy territories.
The conflict continues, the risks increase and the only certainty is this: the US is turning to other fronts. For experts of course: Europe, if you want to survive in this “new multipolar world”, you will have to learn to defend yourself alone.
“We are still in a phase of political-strategic uncertainty. Tension will remain. And peace is still far from the horizon,” concludes Major General Agostinho Costa.
