Government was to be presented on the 20th but closing of negotiations was anticipated. The world, as it is being charged today, is not for great waits. In the German case, negotiations involve someone who is a “genre of Sérgio Sousa Pinto”
There have been days of great bustle in Berlin, which culminated in a call to three on Tuesday, among the conservative Friedrich Merz, who won the Early Legislative Elections of February 23, the SPD leader and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The goal: to anticipate the announcement of a coalition government that the two parties have been negotiating for more than six weeks and that, given the trade war launched by Donald Trump’s administration, has become more urgent than ever.
“This was crazy in Berlin in the last days and what accelerated this whole process was Trump’s fares. This economic war has created a big alarm in Germany, a country that has been in recession for two years and whose auto industry, especially BMW, Audi and Volkswagen, depends immensely on the North American market,” CNN explains political analyst Miguel Baumgartner, expert with large experience with experience in Germany.
“They wanted to have presented the government on the 20th, but there was no way to wait, and Tuesday had a call to three so that in the next 48 hours there was a political gesture to calm the markets,” Baumgartner said, quoting sources in Berlin with those who spent the morning on the phone. With Trump’s, the news that Habemus German government has arrived in the middle of the morning to prevent the country from continuing to the rudder of a management executive at such a turbulent time.
“With the alternative to Germany (AFD, far right), closer and closer to the CDU, with the markets at stir, with the German bag losing in recent days what had not lost in the last decade -something that has not been seen since the subprime crisis in 2008 -it took a political gesture,” reinforces Miguel Baumgartner.
This gesture arrived, finally, thanks to a great assignment of Merz to the SPD. During the campaign, it was clear that Scholz would leave the scene after the elections and it was equally clear that Merz wanted to continue working with Boris Pistorius, defense minister in the last coalition and should keep this folder in the new. The big surprise is that Merz will have as vice chancer Lars Klingbeil, colicer of the SPD, who will also take over the finance portfolio.
“Merz did not want to have the president of the SPD in finances, but this past week, and with the fees and seizures that have been, namely in the German bag, he began to undergo a lot of pressure from regional governments – and even within the party himself – to effectively accept what was the condition sine qua non From SPD, having the finance portfolio, just as Angela Merkel had Scholz as his finance minister, ”says Miguel Baumgartner.
Prior to the said “Liberation Day”, thus proclaimed by Donald Trump when, earlier this month, he announced the dates and values of customs rates on imported goods from more than 150 countries, CDU and SPD had been negotiating the spot for several weeks and the process was not being peaceful, says the analyst.
“The negotiations were stuffed, it was a serious problem, because there are effectively stories, namely workers and the minimum wage of social support, when there are parts of Germany with major employment problems … There was all this social side that the SPD could not lose – he could not take a bear hug, so I didn’t want a neoliberal with the finance paste.”
With this acceleration of the Made in USA process, Merz “has gone in and now will have as number two a man who is not as left as Scholz – to give an example that is closer to us, is a genre of Sérgio Sousa Pinto,” says Baumgartner. And the first big question to turn around the new German government is precisely to be expected from Lars Klingbeil.
“When you have as a minister of finance someone who is the younger version of Scholz – extremely cautious and who, as Merkel’s finance minister, was a kind of Mário Centeno, who froze money and who did not spend anything – there is a fear that today feels in Berlin about how it is [Klingbeil] It will make the necessary tax and labor reforms and how will this ability to spend money while Scholz’s Delfim Effective. ”
Merz almost to be wrapped
There was no formal announcement about the new coalition yet and what “Merz is already in political siles.” “The new chancellor promised to be a strong leader for Europe, but the talks [para a formação de governo] They can leave it focused on damaging damage, ”the portal wrote Tuesday.
This image of a strong leader to Merz practically since the collapse of the Scholz traffic light coalition, precisely the day Donald Trump was again elected president of the US, last November, has been getting lost, not just because of the concessions he has just made to give Germany a stable government.
“Many voters who voted CDU think Merz lost gas and that, somehow, all that strength, that gene he employed, was lost and that is what is very noted in the last inquiries of opinion, with a lot of CDU vow to say that if it were now, they would vote for AFD because Germany cannot be standing, it has to move forward,” explains Miguel Baumgartner. Shortly after the interview with CNN, a new survey conducted April 4 and 5 with a thousand voters put to another hard blow to Chancellor Merz.
Given the current economic and financial context, Baumgartner highlights as another major challenge that “it was not well explained to people how will that economic bazoque that have already presented” another potential problem. “It was all explained in very technical, very bureaucratic terms, and then there is the fact that the approval has to go through the regional parliaments and there are many regional governments without majorities.”
In various regions, by the way, governments were suspended waiting for guidelines that never arrived, especially since the announcement of Trump tariffs. “They were actually waiting for political orientation from the two parties at national level and basically there has been nothing. Merz did not speak in recent days, did not appear to talk about the problem of tariffs – the Germans were waiting for a voice that did not arise.”
With the government formed thanks to a huge concession that many CDU voters can see “Merz almost to be wrapped by the SPD, being caught in a web,” the real challenges in Berlin begin with the response to the tariffs, Baumgartner says.
“What we will have to understand in the coming hours and days is what kind of behavior will have the coalition to have, because there are situations like the issue of unions, agricultural and immigration that are not resolved but not being kept in the next. There is a feeling that it was pragmatism that led them to make this decision now, because until 24 hours the government agreement was not closed. decisions. ”
