Research can rather capture with a good deal of hit what is happening in society, but without losing ourselves in ideological identities, it is important to reflect on factors that can influence their results
Something wrong is happening. For the “average Afghan”, it is difficult to understand what is before your eyes. It can bring to Av. Paulista a multitude of protesters. It’s a lot of people, regardless of the numbers that the press may have released. Let’s imagine that there were no political bias in this count and that the data is reliable.
People are stunned. They look at a photograph of the demonstration in favor of and do not find a little space to accommodate another living soul. All packed, even the platters are crowded. Then compare with the left -wing manifestation against the amnesty: a michary of half a dozen dripped cats. That is, the favorable amnesty gave a chocolate in the opposites.
Searches x Images
But stunned why? Because Datafolha didn’t even wait for the deceased to cool and has already released a survey that contradicts everything the images showed. According to the survey, 56% of respondents are against amnesty. The people see this percentage and exclaim: is it?! Then comes another even more surprising data: 52% want Bolsonaro to be arrested. And again, the perplexity: is it?!
Although research claims scientific rigor in its realization, many people wonder if there is no manipulation or error in the opinion collection. The head boils with a doubt that borders on: believe what the eyes see or what they have to see?
What is not lacking is research
Year in, year, and history repeats itself. As we have elections every two years, there is no lack of research. For all tastes. Often, they differ from each other with differences that scare. The phenomenon of confirmation bias leads each one to believe in the surveys that favor their candidate. But in the end, so many times, neither do they support themselves.
At the time of election campaign, it is a God helps us. YES, another, too, new percentages of voting intention appear. As the polls approach, the rush begins to present data that fit better with reality.
I don’t want to lose my vote
When asked, the institutes say that research is just a “photography of the moment” and that, with political dynamics, scenarios change. The portrait was true to those circumstances. But reality becomes a blink of an eye.
The problem is that, for months, people were influenced by numbers that were later misleading. As opinion is based on the information received, changing position is not so simple. Still in force the old maxim: “I do not want to lose my vote,” that is, I avoid voting for those who seem losing.
Sampling and geographical cutout
As a training economist, I do not discredit the numbers. Research can capture with a good deal of hit what is happening in society. But without losing ourselves in ideological identities, it is important to reflect on factors that can influence your results. Even when they obey scientific requirements, research does not always reflect the true yearnings of the community.
Research works with small groups that should represent the whole. If the group does not reflect diversity, such as age, social class, education, religion, region, the result is born distorted. Geographic cut is another relevant aspect. If most interviews happen in large capitals, more inclined to the left, the survey loses the portrait of the conservative interior.
From the formulation of the question to the spiral of silence
Changing a word changes the answer. “Amnesty for scammers” does not sound like “Amnesty for arrested protesters.” The tone shapes the thought. Similarly, the survey period has influence. If the research is done amid an avalanche of negative news, the answers tend to be taken by this emotional pressure.
In ideological patrolling environments, many people prefer to omit what they think. Answers what you think is socially acceptable. We also have to consider the dissemination of the results. Often, the data is presented to highlight what matters and minimize what hinders, shaping the public’s perception.
Thus, even respecting the scientific methodology, opinion research can create a blurred, trembling or edited portrait of reality. Therefore, if you see with suspicion the data that roam the research, don’t worry, because it is well-compatured. After all, blindly relying on them is as risky as being oriented by deformed mirrors. Follow by
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the young Pan.
