JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the world, maintains its recession forecast.
The bank still sees 60% chance of a recession in the US and world, even after President Donald Trump has for 90 days.
“Combined with current political chaos on commercial and domestic matters, along with still significant losses in action markets and the impact on trust, it is still hard to imagine the US avoiding a recession.”
JP Morgan economists in a report published on Wednesday night (9)
JPMorgan argued that, “keeping everything more constant,” the decision to revoke the specific “draconian” tariffs for each country, announced in the “Liberation Day”, is positive.
“However, not everything else remains the same and the current situation is still worrying,” the bank said.
Specifically, JPMorgan stated that those still in force represent a “big shock” – equivalent to 7.5 times the shock of the trade war from 2018 to 2019.
“More shocking is the increase in impressive 125%,” the bank said, noting that this represents an increase in taxes of approximately $ 860 billion before substitutions are accounted for.
“We believe it is far from over, and today it was just the end of the beginning,” said JPMorgan.
