Russian troops continue to make minor advances in the border area of the Sumy and Kursk regions. However, the Russian military detachment in this area probably You will not be able to launch a great offensive operation In the near future, unless receiving significant reinforcements, according to analysts, based in Washington.
In reaction to the statement of the commander in FEFE of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, about the Intensification of the Russian offensive in “all the main directions” of the front And the beginning of offensive actions In the regions of Sumy and Kharkiv, the ISW points out “gradual but constant” advances and attacks along the VolodyMyrivka-Zhuravka-Navenke line (to the north and northeast of Sumy).
In addition to this greater Russian pressure in the north of the Sumy region, American experts also point out Russian continuous attempts to finally evict the Ukrainian forces of the Kursk regionexpelling them from their remaining positions in the south of the region, partially occupied by Ukraine since August and where they have not taken them out with the help of North Korea soldiers.
Analysts remember that Russian troops They expelled the Ukrainian troops of Sudzhi and most of Kursk in mid -March 2025but his advance is deceased. During the last month, the Russians have begun to move north of the Sumy region.
ISW situation map.
The Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, in its April 9 review that the newspaper quotes estimated that currently There are between 62,000 and 65,000 military and Russian border guards operating in the Kursk region.
In January 2025, Syrsky expressed an estimate that the Russian forces had concentrated approximately 67,000 Russian troops and 11,000 North Korean troops in that area. When commenting on these figures, Isw remembers that, since then, the Russian forces They have probably suffered some losses during the intense attacks of March and early April 2025.
The experts of the War Institute indicate that units of the 155th Russian Marines Brigade have been redistributed of the Kursk Oblast to respond to the continuous Ukrainian attacks in the northwest of that territory.
It seems that Russian military command It is not currently carrying out a significant increase in the group of Russian forces in the Kursk regionwhat would be the main indicator of the preparations for a larger offensive operation against the Sumy region, emphasizes the ISW.
Moreover, the Russians They are even redistributing a small number of Russian troops to another area away from the sumy region. This may indicate the trust From the Russian command in which you can achieve your operational objectives in this area with the forces already gathered in the Kursk region, says the report.
It is likely that the Russian military command is trying to form a “damping zone” Throughout the International border in the Sumy region in Ukraine, The ISW suggests. Although, still, analysts They do not rule out the possibility that in the future the Russian commanders intend to advance more towards the sumy region and towards the city of the same name. Previously, the thought tank evaluated that Russian troops would not try to advance more towards the northern regions of Sumy or attack sumy while Ukrainian troops They kept their bridge head in the Kursk region.
However, recent Russian attacks in the north of the Sumy region indicate that the Russians could Try to take advantage of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region to create a damping zone In Sumy or launch an offensive on it.
ISW’s analysts remember that on March 12, during a visit to the Russian command post in the Kursk region, he ordered the Russian Chief, Valery Gerasimov, “Consider in the future the creation of a security zone” on the border between Ukraine and Russia. And in March 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made statements S madework the supposed need to form a similar “damping zone” in the Járkov region to justify the Russian offensive in the north of the Járkov region. Putin’s new statement indicates that Russian military command is working actively in the creation of a “cushioning zone” in the north of the Sumy region or is considering such a possibility.
It is likely that Putin intends reinforce the expansion of its aggressive claims in the territory of Ukraine. Currently, Russia demands that Ukraine He yets the territories not yet occupied in the regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson as part of a future peace agreement to end the war.
Russian officials have also claimed that the region of Nikolaiv (a small part of which Russia occupies in the isthmus of Kinburn) and the region of Járkov (where Russia occupies limited territories) supposedly In this way, Putin could take advantage of the new Russian offensive in the Sumy region and press the city of Sumy to demand that Ukraine deliver part of the Sumy region to Russia During future peace negotiations.
However, as the ISW suggests, It is unlikely that the Russian forces group in the Kursk region is prepared enough For combat to capture an important Ukrainian city after eight months of fighting, unless you receive significant reinforcements from other parts of the front. In turn, this would require that Russia will abandon important operations In other territories of Ukraine and, possibly, he will leave these areas vulnerable to the advance of Ukrainian forces, and therefore is “unlikely,” analysts believe.
Therefore, according to their evaluation, Russian troops probably intend to create a “damping zone” limited and defensible In the north of the Sumy region, as well as advancing artillery near Sumy on a sufficient radius to exert pressure on the city and make it uninhabitable for civilians. The Russian military command could also intend to form limited and defensible positions in the north of the Sumy YL regionIt will redistribute your forces to reinforce other operational efforts in Ukraine. Although the informative and political pressure that a Russian offensive about the city of Sumy could cause may be more attractive for Putin to advance in other areas of the front.
