The governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), is appointed as a favorite in the reelection dispute in 2026, according to a Datafolha survey released on Thursday (11). The survey indicates that if the election were today, the former infrastructure minister would win its main opponents with wide margin and maintain the lead in all simulated second round scenarios.
In one of the tested scenarios, Tarcisio records 41% of voting intentions, ahead of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), which appears with 25%. Third is the digital influencer Pablo Marçal (PRTB), with 15%, followed by Health Minister Alexandre Padilha (PT), with 6%, and federal deputy Ricardo Salles (Novo-SP), with 4%.
Although he was considered by the survey as a viable candidate, according to a decision of the Electoral Justice who condemned him for abuse of political and economic power. It is up to appeal.
Consolidated advantage in the second round
Tarcisio also wins with a comfortable margin in second round simulations. Against Alckmin, the governor appears with 53%, while the former tucano records 39%. In another scenario, against Minister Márcio França (PSB), who was not tested in the first round, the score is even more favorable: 62% to 24%.
Tarcísio leads in spontaneous research
In spontaneous research – where respondents mention names without stimulus – Tarcisio leads with 16%, plus 5% who said they vote “in the current governor.” The most cited names are Deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Minister Fernando Haddad (PT), both with 2%.
Potential presidential
Although it publicly reinforces that its focus is on reelection in Sao Paulo, to dispute the Planalto Palace in 2026, especially due to the ineligibility of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL). Datafolha data strengthens its political capital in the country’s largest electoral college and place it in a strategic position for a possible national flight.
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The survey listened to 1,500 voters in 81 municipalities of São Paulo between April 1st and 3rd. The margin of error is three percentage points, more or less.
