On April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced a set of commercial tariffs against more than 180 nations. The US intensified the US trade war against China and also reached other countries, including Brazil.
In the days following the announcement, several bags around the world plummeted. According to experts, the main expected effects of tariffs are increased short -term American inflation and the slowdown in economic activity.
Because they are the largest economy in the world, everything that happens in the US affects the international market in some way. The same goes for commercial tariffs, which will be felt in different ways by countries.
To learn more about how the topic is moving with markets around the world, continue reading below.
What are Trump’s fares?
In “” (it was Trump referred to April 2), the US President determined that any product imported by the US will be at least 10%.
Import rates vary according to each country. Brazil was in the smallest track (10%), next to Argentina, Colombia, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, among others. Other locations had much larger impacts, such as the European Union (20%), Japan (24%), India (26%) and China (up to 54%).
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How were Trump’s tariffs calculated?
“Reciprocal tariffs” was the name the US government gave the announced tariff in early April.
Theoretically, with tariff reciprocity, the US would charge imports the same percentage that each country applies to US products that buy. However, it seems not to be what current taxation reflects.
To define what the tariff applied to each country would be, the Trump government made the following account: it divided the partner’s commercial deficit with the US (how much it matters more than it exports) by its exports to the country. After that, it multiplied the result by ½.
According to experts, the calculation had political motivations as it used commercial deficits from other countries with the US to justify taxation. For Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading’s chief marketing strategist, Trump’s tariffs are punitive for those with surpluses with the country.
“The administration is specifically aiming nations with large commercial surpluses with the United States compared to their exports to the US,” he said in a statement to investors.
What are the countries most affected by US tariffs?
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Tariffs fall on 185 countries, and some of the most vulnerable economies in the world and countries in civil war are among the largest percentages.
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They head the São Pedro and Miquelão and Lesoto list (50%), Cambodia (49%), Laos (48%), Madagascar (47%), Vietnam (46%), Sri Lanka and Mianmar (44%), Syria and Malvinos Islands (41%), Mauricio (40%), Iraq (38%). Later, Pakistan (29%), Kazakhstan (27%), India (26%), Japan (24%) and the European Union (20%) appear.
Among the countries that had the lowest rate (10%) are Brazil and most of the Latin American nations.
EXPECTED EFFECTS OF TRUMP FAIRS TO THE WORLD
The immediate response of several countries was the promise of suspending investments in the US and returning the tariff in equivalent proportions. The financial market responded to this instability with nervousness: several scholarships plummeted around the world – including Japan’s one on April 7.
For many economists, Trump’s fares can discourage the US economy. As US imported products become more expensive, this can reduce demand and negatively impact companies profit margins.
In an interview with Infomoney, . According to him, the world entered the “economic hyperespace.”
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“From the moment Trump tears all the rules accepted multilaterally from international trade, it is now the ‘Muricy Law’, as the ancients said: it is each other,” he said.
Is the fare good or bad for Brazil?
For some analysts, the fact that Brazil was in the minimum taxation group can create some opportunities for Brazil in the short term. One of the main ones is the increase in agribusiness sales to China, as the country should reduce US purchases in response to tariffs.
According to Economic Consulting MB Associados, Brazil can also benefit from the growing Chinese demand for soy, corn, meat and other commodities expected for the coming years. In a report published by the BBC, the consultancy provides for a “trend of approaching Brazil with Southeast Asia, Japan and Europe, increasing the current of trade with these countries”.
On the other hand, some important sectors for the Brazilian economy will suffer more from the tariff. This is the case of aluminum and steel, which the Trump administration has taxed by 25%, regardless of the origin, as stressed Constanza Negri, Trade Manager and National Integration of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). In an interview with the BBC, she notes that iron and steel derivatives are the second export item for the most important US, with sales volume of $ 2.8 billion in 2024. They only lose to oil, which totaled $ 5.8 billion in exports to the country last year.
“Possible gains may affect some sectors, but the general balance is worrying for Brazilian production,” says Negri.
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Roberto Azevêdo, former director general of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Ambipar’s president of operations, has the same opinion. , despite the occasional opportunities that may arise for Brazil
“Inflation will rise, the world economy can slow down, you can have a reordering of global trade flows, supply chains can change. And in this context, it will have an impact anyway,” he says.
