Although clouds accumulate on the horizon, the storm does not finish downloading. China has started 2025 with more solidity than expected: its GDP increased 5.4% annualized in the first quarter, the National Statistics Office (One) revealed on Wednesday. The data is above numerous forecasts, which anticipated an increase of 5.1%. The figure announced on Wednesday coincides with the, and places the Asian giant in a favorable position to achieve its.
The Chinese economy grew between January and April 1.2% more compared to the previous quarter. Although the good performance of the second largest economy in the world offers a certain margin of maneuver to the Chinese authorities, it is expected that he will begin to leave a deeper mark on the next quarters, even.
“The national economy has shown a good start and maintained a positive recovery trend,” said Shen Laiyun, deputy director of the ONE, during the press conference in which GDP data was revealed. However, he also recognized “that.” In addition, the urban unemployment rate – which stood at 5.3% in the first quarter – and deflationary pressures keep the concern of Chinese legislators alive. “Internal demand lacks sufficient impulse and the foundations of economic recovery must still be consolidated,” Shen said.
The growth of the first quarter was based on a rebound in manufacturing activity and consumption. Industrial production increased 6.5% year -on -year in the first three months of the year, underpinned by a wave of orders advanced from abroad to avoid the entry into force of new levies, and expanded to 7.7% year -on -year in March.
On Monday, it was announced, and 13.5% fiddled in March compared to the previous year. However, the tariff climb has sown doubts about whether these sales could be quickly reversed in the coming months, and has reinforced Beijing’s turn towards domestic demand as a growth engine.
Commercial clashes with the United States have intensified since Donald Trump’s return to the White House. China is also the only nation against which the US President maintains its large -scale tariff offensive. Washington has raised the levies that weigh on most Chinese products up to 145% – it is waiting to confirm the specific tariff for technological products – while Beijing has responded to all blows with similar increases, carrying the effective rate up to 125%.
In a significant movement in full tariff climb, China has also appointed a new international representative in the Ministry of Commerce today. Li Chenggang will replace Wang Shouwen, who participated in the conversations that led to signing a commercial pact in 2020 with the United States. The designation of LI, a 58 -year -old veteran with training in law and economy, is interpreted as an attempt to unlock dialogue with Washington. His knowledge of the ins and outs South China Morning Post. The White House Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, declared on the eve that “the ball is on China’s roof: they have to reach an agreement with us, not the other way around.”
To compensate for the foreseeable brake of foreign trade in the coming months ,. The government has promised to raise the deficit and increase infrastructure spending, and recently published a 30 -point plan to stimulate household disbursements. The recovery of consumption has begun to give signs: retail sales, a key thermometer of domestic demand, rose 4.6% interannual in the first quarter, with an acceleration of up to 5.9% interannual in the month of March.
But as happened in 2024, the real estate sector continues to be a ballast for growth, with a market that still does not show signs of recovery. The investment in this area fell 9.9% year -on -year in the first quarter, a slightly deeper contraction than that of 9.8% year -on -year registered in the same period of the previous year. In addition, the ONE has also reported that new construction housing prices remained stagnant in March.
The loss of confidence in the real estate sector, which for years was one of the pillars of the growth of the Chinese economy, has been minimally compensated by investment in fixed assets, which grew 4.2% in the whole of January to March. It is just a tenth more than in the first two months of the year. For its part, private investment, a key indicator of the security level of entrepreneurs, advanced a modest 0.4% in the first quarter.
Xu Tiannchen, a senior economist of The Economist Intelligence Unit, values the 5.4% increase in GDP as “a very good start” for the year, but warns that, “the second quarter could disappoint if there is no blunt and timely political response,” the Reuters agency collects. Beijing says it has enough margin to act. , this month promised new stimulus measures and is expected that the Politburo, the main decision body of the Communist Party, celebrates a meeting before April ends to define the economic agenda of the coming months.
Last week, the American investment bank Goldman Sachs reviewed his prediction of the growth of the Chinese economy by 2025, from 4.5% to 4%. It also cut its forecast by 2026, from 4% to 3.5%. “The increase in tariffs on Chinese goods will have a significant weight on Chinese economy and labor market,” analysts said in an informative note. Yesterday did the Swiss Bank UBS, from 4% to 3.4%, taking into account a scenario in which the high American rates are maintained to importation.
