Workers sew export clothing to Europe and USA in a clothing factory in Huaibei, East China
The Chinese economy grew 5.4% in the first quarter of the year, according to official data widespread, as manufacturers rushed orders before the customs rates in the United States.
Good news for China’s economy – and, by drag, to the world economy.
We had been here for days that the economy of China, affected in recent years by a serious real estate crisis, could have, after January and February, had better numbers than expected.
Before, in January,
Data released today confirms the apparent recovery of the second largest economy world, with a 5.4% growth in the first quarter, driven in part by anticipation of orders delivery prior to climbing customs rates in the United States.
Growth is in line with the expansion rhythm achieved pshe second largest economy in the world in the fourth quarter and exceeds “about 5%” for the year 2025 established by Beijing.
The impulse comes at a time when US President Donald Trump intensified, threatening a total dissociation between the world’s two largest economies, at a time when China was already facing a prolonged real estate crisis.
Fees on most Chinese products have increased to at least 145%, one level that could lead to exports in China to contrast this year and impair a crucial growth engine.
The data released by the National Statistics Office (GNE) exceeded the consensual estimate of 5.2% of the economists responded by the news agency.
Industrial production expanded 7.7% in March, compared to the same period of the previous year, in the fastest growth since June 2021. Retail sales have increased by 5.9%, the best pace since December 2023.
“A Most pleasant surprise are retail saleswhich shows that consumption subsidies are working, ”he said Michelle Lameconomist at the French bank societa Generale SA to China, quoted by the agency.
“Industrial production was a surprise, but understandable after the strong export data. But this is now part of the past,” he told Bloomberg.
Despite the positive data, the gne recommended cautionunderlining the need to give greater support to the economy.
“We must be aware that the external environment It is becoming more complex and severe. The impetus of internal demand for growth is insufficient and the basis for economic recovery and sustained growth are yet to consolidate, ”said the cabinet in a statement.“ We have to implement more pro – active and effective macroeconomic policies“He pointed out.
O investment in fixed assets increased 4.2% In the first three months of 2025, while real estate investment registered a 9.9%contraction, extending the crisis that reached the sector in 2022. unemployment rate Urban was 5.2% in March, descending 5.4% in the previous month.
China may however have difficulties in achieving your official objective growth this year without further stimuli.
In recent weeks, several international banks, including UBS Group AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc., Downloaded their predictions China’s growth to about 4% or lessthe result of the aggravation of commercial tensions with Washington.
Some economists expect the Popular Bank of China expect Reduce rates Interest or the amount of money that banks should keep in reserve this month, while others provide for several yuan billion in additional loans and tax expenses to fill the void left by falling exports.
China has to rapidly increase domestic consumption and the investment to contradict the impact of tariffs. The weakness of the labor market continues to prevent consumers from spending more, even before US fees reach export -related jobs.
O impact of the trade war will probably manifest itself in economic activity From Aprilafter an increase of 12.4% of exports in March, as companies rushed to complete orders.
A possibility of agreement between the US and China on commercial dispute It seems reduced in the near futuresince Beijing adopted by the successive rounds of tariffs imposed by Trump.
China’s scholarships kept their losses largely Following the disclosure of the data, with the Hang Seng China Enterprisses, which brings together the main Hong Kong -quoted Chinese companies, losing 2.4%, and the CSI 300, which replicates the performance of the 300 main shall and Shenzhen stocks traded 0.8%.
