Economic team says see “challenging” scenario; In practice, there would be less space for the execution of public policies and investments
The (PT) government economic team expects that the government’s (non -compulsory) government’s budget for R $ 221.2 billion in 2025 to R $ 8.9 billion in 2029 – Tombo of 96%.
Only from 2026 to 2027 the amount would already retract significantly. It would go from R $ 208.3 billion to R $ 122.2 billion, falling 41%.
The numbers were presented on Tuesday (15.br.2025) in the LDO (Budgetary Guideline Law) project to 2026. Here is the presentation with the data (PDF – 1 MB).
Read in the infographic below the projections ():
Discretionary expenses are non -compulsory expenses by law and can be adjusted annually in the budget. They are usually investments and cost of public administration.
The significant year by year shows that the government will have less amount of money for this type of action, which can undermine public policies, for example.
The values also include spending on amendments of deputies and senators – federal registrations that congressmen direct for investment actions.
These funds represent a significant slice of discretionary. That is, federal management will have less and less money for its own resources because it will have to make the amendments payments.
It is estimated that the expenses of the category are:
- R $ 52.9 billion to 2026;
- R $ 56.5 billion to 2027;
- R $ 57.9 billion to 2028;
- R $ 61.7 billion for 2029.
It is clear that there is “negative balance” from 2029. That is, there will be not enough discretionary to accommodate nor the amendments destined for Congress. In short, The public machine will not be able to functionby the projections of the budget guidelines.
The account begins to weigh from 2027, the year following the presidential elections. That is, it may not even be paid by Lula management. If the petista is reelected or ends an ally, he will have a difficult scenario ahead. If not, the break is for the next president.
“The number is quite compromising and would already compromise the realization of public policies”said the Federal Budget Secretary, in an interview with journalists about the LDO project.
Another reason for decreasing discretionary from 2027 is the return of accounting and court sentence expenses in the goals of the Fiscal Framework. This will press the total that is available for disbursement.
Precatory are payment requests issued to charge amounts due to a court judgment. Expenses with the category should reach.
