Study indicates that 46% of agricultural diseases will be more severe up to 2100, affecting crops such as soy, coffee and corn
The climate crisis will have serious effects on the field: more severe, resistant, and difficult to control diseases. A study conducted by researchers indicates that about 46% of agricultural diseases that occur in Brazil should become more severe by the year 2100, with direct impact on strategic cultures such as rice, corn, soy, coffee, sugar cane, vegetables and fruits. Increased temperature and changes in the rainfall regime should favor fungi, viruses and vectors, requiring the country a restructuring in phytosanitary monitoring and control systems.
The projection comes from a broad scientific review that evaluated 304 patosystems (set formed by pathogen and host plant) related to 32 of the main Brazilian agricultural cultures. The survey shows that the fungi is the most recurring pathogens, present in almost 80% of cases evaluated.
Climate change should make the environment even more conducive to the dissemination of pathogens. The study points out that the average increase in temperature may exceed 4.5 ° C in some Brazilian regions until the end of the century, if the world does not take steps to curb climate change. For illnesses caused by fungi such as anthracnose and dealer (photo on the right, pumpkin), this scenario creates ideal conditions for proliferation. Changes in rainfall, with more dry or intensely humid periods, also interfere with the dynamics of diseases.
“The forecast of disease in a climate change scenario is a complex challenge that requires the continuity of research and implementation of new adaptation strategies.”says researcher Francislene Angelotti of Embrapa Semi -arid (PE). It also emphasizes the importance of investments to strengthen national phytosanitary systems and structures and promote scientific innovation to face the challenges imposed by climate change.
Expanding vectors
It’s not just the fungi who worry. Vectors-transmitted diseases such as aphids, co-whispers, tripods, white flies (photo below) and mites should also increase in the entire national territory. According to researcher Wagner Bettiol of Embrapa Environment (SP), the life cycle of these insects becomes shorter with heat, and their longevity tends to increase. This means larger populations, more active and longer during the year. The consequence is a high risk for crops such as potatoes, banana, tomatoes, citrus and corn, which are already affected by these pests.
Impact on agricultural defensive
Research shows that climate change can affect the effectiveness of pesticides, requiring adjustments to phytosanitary control strategies. All the dynamics of fungicides in plants (the way they are absorbed, transported and degraded) can change with the new climate scenario which will also cause morphological and physiological changes in plants.
As a result, the use of chemicals can become less efficient or require more applications, which increases costs and environmental risks. This scenario already drives the search for alternatives, especially the so -called biological control agents, such as biopesticides.
Brazil is a leader in biocontrol, but needs to advance
Brazil is today the largest producer and consumer of biopesticides in the world and has the largest agricultural area under biological control. According to projection by consulting firm Research and Markets, the global market of these products is expected to reach $ 19.49 billion by 2030.
Despite the protagonism, researchers warn that the country needs to reinforce the adaptation of these bioagentes to new weather conditions. “We urgently need to develop biological bioherbicides and biological products that increase the efficiency of nitrogen use and reduce abiotic stress of plants.”defends Bettiol. It also advocates the advance in the creation of biological solutions for the control of strategic diseases such as soybean Asian rust and coffee rust, as well as the selection of biocontrol agents adapted to the new climate.
Coordinated Monitoring and Action
Given the projected scenario, experts recommend a combination of actions to protect Brazilian fields such as risk analysis, prevention, adaptation, strengthening of phytosanitary surveillance, expansion of investments in research and incentive for international cooperation. Short -term measures include the use of diverse cultivation systems, the integration of different management technologies, the use of biological agents and the adoption of epidemics forecast and warning models.
“Coping these challenges requires effective public policies and a coordinated effort between farmers, scientists and governments to ensure food security and sustainability of the agricultural sector”reinforces Angelotti. She points out that adaptation to climate change in the countryside cannot only depend on farmers: it takes an articulation between science, government and productive sector.
Phytosanitary risk is strategic for the country
The study also points to the wide range of plant pathogens in Brazil, due to their agricultural diversity that extends through a vast territory with varied climates, covering tropical and tempered plants. These characteristics reinforce the need to perform regionalized evaluations based on the dynamics of phytosanitary problems in different producing areas and in future scenarios.
Researcher Emilia Hamada, from Embrapa Environment, emphasizes the importance of studies on the spatial and temporal distribution of pathogens in climate change risk scenarios. For it, it is necessary that they contain experiments in field conditions to identify vulnerability and adopt measures to protect cultivation systems.
She says that climate projections indicate temperature increases in Brazil from up to 4.5 ° C to 2100, in certain regions and stations of the year. In addition, Hamada explains that the results indicate aggravation of the risk of fungal diseases, such as anthracnose and dealer, depending on temperature increases and changes in the rainfall regime, depending on the region of the country.
Risk scenarios are crucial to identifying the vulnerability of disease cultivation systems in climate change scenarios and more scientific advances are necessary to effectively prevent economic and environmental damage, complements hamaada.
Science and adaptation as paths
Embrapa’s study points out that climate change is already shaping the future of Brazilian agriculture. If nothing is done, economic and environmental damage can be severe. But with planning, innovation and coordinated actions, the country can turn the challenge into an opportunity to modernize its plant defense system.
With information from Embrapa Agency
