The international trade war has been cast and has arrived in the European Union after the announcement of customs tariffs by Donald Trump, president of the US, to products from the EU. Business relations between the EU and the United States are fundamental to the European economy, but not all member states also depend on this external partner.
According to Eurostat data in 2023, Ireland was the EU country most dependent on the US’s goods exports, representing 10.1% of its GDP – a value far above other countries. Belgium (5.6%) and Slovakia (4.0%) are followed.
Portugal has a median exhibition, with the exports of goods to the US to represent 2.0% of GDP, with the 13th largest percentage among the 27 EU member states. At the bottom of the table, countries such as Cyprus, Malta, Luxembourg, Romania, Croatia and Greece, where the weight of goods to the US is less than 1% of GDP.
These differences have important implications in times of global instability or changes in US commercial policies, as is currently happening with the return of Donald Trump to the American presidency and the imposition of customs tariffs. More exposed countries may feel more direct economic impacts of customs tariffs.
The level of uncertainty in economic policies is at historically raised values in both the US and Europe. The Economic Policy Uncertainth Index, which measures uncertainty based on the news of the main newspapers, has recorded significant peaks in recent years, due to the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the geopolitical context and, more recently, the governance of Trump (mainly due to its commercial policy).
The current geopolitical context is one of the most tense of recent years and represents a huge challenge for Europe, particularly for the European Union. Difficult times have ahead.
- The facts seen to the magnifying glass by André Pinção Lucas e Juliano Ventura – A partnership of the postcard with the Institute
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