Jair Bolsonaro (PL) leads the presidential race to 2026 in all scenarios in which it appears, according to a new survey released on Tuesday (22) by the Paraná Research Institute. Even (TSE), the former president appears as the only name on the right capable of beating Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) in the first round-and with a more comfortable margin in the second.
In the simulation stimulated with six candidates, Bolsonaro records 38.5% of voting intentions, compared to 33.3% of Lula. Ciro Gomes (PDT) comes in third, with 9.7%, followed by other names in the third way.
In a possible second round, the former president would expand his advantage over the petista: 44.4% against 38.8%. The survey error margin is 2.2 percentage points, more or less.
Despite the leadership, Bolsonaro remains ineligible until 2030, after being convicted by the TSE for abuse of political power and improper use of the media, in a trial in 2023. He is also STF) for attempted coup.
Tested substitutes do not repeat performance
The research also evaluated scenarios with possible Bolsonaro substitutes in the dispute. In the second scenario tested, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 31.7% of voting intentions, ties technically with Lula, which total 33.7%.
When the name tested is that of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), he marks 27.3%, behind Lula, with 34.0%. The governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD), reaches 16.2% – far from the petista, who appears with 33.3%.
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Second round simulations
In second round scenarios, Bolsonaro is the only one who would beat Lula, with 44.4% to 38.8%. Already Michelle and Tarcisio appear tied with the president within the margin of error:
- Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro: 42,0% x 41,4%
- Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas: 41,2% x 40,3%
The survey was made between April 16 and 19, 2025, with 2,020 in -person interviews in 160 municipalities, in the 27 Federation Units. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, and the confidence interval is 95%.
