Tariffs will “mess up” Fed’s work, says Galipolo

The President of (Central Bank), Gabriel Galipolo, said on Tuesday (22.abr.br.2025) that the tariff implemented by the president of the United States, Donald Trump (Republican), will “go”mess up”The work of the Fed (Federal Reservethe US Central Bank). According to him, the US monetary authority was managing to implement a “gentle landing”By delivering to society inflation in falling and heated economic activity.

GALIPOLO participates in a public hearing at the Federal Senate Economic Affairs Committee (CAE). According to the agenda of the day, it was a regular attendance to address monetary policy and central bank affairs.

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Fed president Jerome Powell has been at US interest rates. Galipole praised the work of the US monetary authority, which underwent two supply shock seizures, the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

“[Powell] He was managing to deliver something that is rare for us to see in practice, which is a soft landing. He has a double term and was delivering an inflation that had been converging gradually to the goal with a heated economy in full employment and the exuberance he saw in all markets, both debt and actions. ”these.

According to Galipolo, there are still doubts about the effect of inflationary pressures and economic activity. Both possibilities are:

• Scenario of stronger deceleration that causes misinflation and exports misinflation to the whole world;
• Scenario of more pronounced slowdown that causes a risk aversion and race to safer assets.

“Powell has reiterated that the mandate [de integrante do Fed] It is monetary stability and they have this commitment to the persecution of monetary stability ”stated Galipole.

International scenario

According to Galipolo, the international scenario has been the “main vector”In the dynamics of market prices. He said that the perception of financial agents about Donald Trump (Republican) government can be divided into 3 phases:

• 1st phase: There was an interpretation “most benign”In the last quarter of 2024, with prospects for pro-financial management, with less tax and more flexible regulation measures. Trump fares would be gradual;
• 2nd phase: In the 1st quarter of 2025, the investor scale of the investors was the possibility that the tariff impact produces the economy’s slowdown and expanded uncertainties;
• 3rd phase: Financial agents have put on the radar that climbing in the commercial dispute may have a slowdown.abruptOf the global economy. As the US is the epicenter of the crisis, and the dollar can be impacted, there are doubts from investors of “Where protection should be sought”According to Galipolo.

Monetary policy

Measured by the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index), Brazil’s official inflation was. It is 2.48 percentage points above the center of the goal, which is 3%. The ceiling is 4.5%.

The Central Bank the inflation target in June, a month that will complete a rate above 4.5% for 6 months. According to projections by financial agents in the Focus Bulletin, inflation will be 5.57% in December.

The monetary authority said on March 25 that the deceleration of the economy is. Increased the basic rate, Selic, for the same level as the end of the government (PT).

The Central Bank signaled a new increase in Selic, and may be 0.25 percentage point, 0.50 percentage point or 0.75 percentage point. On March 27, Galipolo stated that the BC left the door open to one to define the intensity of the readjustment.

The average estimates of financial agents indicates a Selic rate of 14.75% at the next meeting, and 15% at the following meeting, of June 17 and 18. If Selic rises to 15%, it will be the.

Lula’s Copom

In 2025, the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) had a majority of members appointed by the President (PT). In the current formation, there are 2 nominated by the former president (PL). The board is made up of 9 people.

The Minister of Finance (PT), on March 20, discharge from the Selic rate in 2025 to former president of BC Roberto Campos Neto, who was nominated by Bolsonaro. Galipolo said on March 27 that he was contrary to the minister.

BC autonomy

A group of 6 people attended the public hearing with criticism of the PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) 65 of 2023, which expands the autonomy of the Central Bank of the Executive Power. The members used a shirt and protest stickers with the following message: “By a central bank for the people. Not for Rentism ”.