More and more European Union countries are beginning to worry that Russia, which began the invasion of the armed forces on Ukraine on 24 February 2022, will also attack other territories. There has been a conflict between Russia and Ukraine since 2014, when the gunmen began to occupy state buildings in the Donetsk region. For military analyst Vladimír Bednár, what the countries are in danger.
Many think that the areas of the former Soviet Union that share the borders with Russia are at the greatest threatening. In the words of Bednar, this is not the case. According to the military analyst of the country such as Slovakia and Hungary, they are more at risk. It is based on the formulas that Russia has been managed in the past.
For Russia, it could be too risky to trigger a direct confrontation with the entire North Atlantic Alliance. “The Russian strategy does not expect any massive attack on Europe or Slovakia. Its strategy is based on the use of local superiority, using the situation where she is convinced of the fact that Most of the population is willing to accept and to join the Russian Federation“the analyst thinks.
According to Bednar, Putin was supposed to have the same intention in deciding on invasion of Ukraine. According to some analysts and sources from the Kremlin Putin thought he would be welcome in Ukraine as a liberator. He was supposed to convince him a high number of people who were “on the Moscow’s paycheck” and who were to turn their backs in Kiev after the attack and join the Kremlin side. But the reality was different.
“It must be confronted in such a way that it quickly occupies a territory and the rest of NATO will have to accept the new status quo. This is actually a similar case to Georgia or Ukraine. In 2022, the Russians attacked just that they expected their Ukrainians to welcome, but it did not happen”Bednár said.
It may happen that Russia will also use the paralysis of the state, as is the case with Moldova, which is in a very difficult situation. He is constantly facing Russian interference, influence operations and separatists supported by the Kremlin. “There may be a situation where a significant part that paralyzes decision -making in the country is added to the side of Russia,” explains Bednár.
“Therefore, countries in which the acceptance of the Russian Federation is the greatest. Ie Slovakia, Bulgaria and Hungary, in this order, are the most at risk.” says a military analyst. He could attack our territory without recharging Ukraine. It is enough to control it similarly to Belarus, which apparently was Putin’s original goal.
Slovakia is one of the most pro -Russian countries in Europe. The views of the population are diametrically different in domestic but foreign policy IV. Slovaks even trust the Russian President Putin (25 % of respondents) who launched an unprovoked war than Volodymyr Greeny (22 %). “This is a consequence of how our elites are shaped by public debate. Most society follows their elites,” Bednar added.
