Numbers are more pessimistic than those of the Ministry of Finance, which estimates a growth of 2.3% for the Brazilian economy this year, as well as the Central Bank, which provides for an expansion of 1.9%
O revised its projections for the growth of From Brazil, providing for an increase of only 2% for the years 2025 and 2026. This review, presented in the ‘Global Economic Perspective’ report last Tuesday (22), represents a reduction of 0.2 percentage point compared to previous predictions made in January. The new IMF estimates are more pessimistic than those of the Brazilian government, which in March projected a 2.3% growth for this year and 2.5% to 2026. The Central Bank, in turn, foresees a growth of 1.9% to 2023.
Economic analysts point out that while robust agricultural production can support the economy earlier this year, the tendency is for gradual slowdown. This is due to high inflation and interest policy that impacts credit. The IMF projects that inflation in Brazil will reach an annual average of 5.3% by 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. These numbers are above the official inflation target, which is 3%, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points for more or less.
In addition to internal issues, the IMF report also highlighted external factors that may negatively impact global economic growth. These include the tariff measures of the president of the United States, and the countermeasures of other countries. In a movement that can intensify commercial tensions, the Trump administration announced the imposition of tariffs on imports of solar panels from four Southeast Asia countries: Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. Tariffs vary, reaching 3,521% for Cambodia products.
*With information from Danubia Braga
*Report produced with the aid of AI
