The Pope died, the battle begins: a small group will unite in the conclave to try to reverse what Francisco did

Pope Francis’ death begins what many consider to be a battle for the soul of the church – placing those who want to continue their progressive reforms against a small but powerful group that wants to reverse them.

Francisco dramatically reformulated the group of prelates that will soon vote in his successor, in front of Miguel Ângelo’s Fresh about the final judgment in the Sistine Chapel.

Only cardinals under 80 are entitled to vote, and it was Francis who chose most of them.

First Pontiff of the Global South, Francis decided to tear the old non -written rules book that predicted that the bishops of certain dioceses – most of whom in Italy, Europe and the United States – were automatically appointed cardinals.

Instead, Francis sought to internationalize the College of Cardinals, giving red barretes to a series of countries that had never been represented by a cardinal such as Tonga, Myanmar, Mongolia, Central African Republic and Haiti.

Their reforms made the body more representative of the world Catholic community, while the cardinals who selected sharing their vision of the Church in general. All this makes more likely that cardinals choose a Pope who represents the continuity of Francis.

But the conclaves can bring surprises and, despite the reforms made by Francisco, there is a small but determined, a displeased minority with the last papacy, which will seek ways to change course.

Part of the opposition is well financed and pre-contest maneuvers have been taking place for several years. These cardinals were concerned about the opening of Francis to give communion to divorced and re -registered couples, their welcome to LGBTQ+ Catholics and their strong criticisms to what they described as “retrograde” Catholics who want to lead the church to a different path.

Criticism of economic inequality and attention to migrant rights and climate crisis shocked Catholics who wanted a Pope who established the law on moral teachings.

While in the hospital, the Pope approved a three -year renovation process, such as the attribution of a more important role for women in the Catholic Church, including their ordination as deacons, and a greater inclusion of lay people in governance and decision making.

Reforms have been examined through a structure called Bishops Synod, which has been the main vehicle through which the Pope has implemented his pastoral agenda during his papacy. In recent years, it has sought to involve Catholics around the world in the renewal process.

The big question is how the next Pope will continue this process, which is expected to extend by 2028.

The debate will probably warm seriously after Pope Francis’ funeral on Saturday, when attention turns to the next conclave – whose start date was not confirmed.

A group to be carefully observed is cardinals over 80 who, although they cannot vote, can play an important role in pre-contest vital meetings and informal discussions that take place in Roman trattorias or cardinals.

Part of these reformed cardinals was not named by Francis and some opposed the direction that the first Latin American Pope tried to give the church.

Cardinal Blase Cupich, from Chicago, and Cardinal Oswald Gracias, Bombam’s retired archbishop, could play this role of “Kingmaker”, such as Cardinal Christophe Pierre, former papal ambassador in the United States, or Cardinal Arthur Roche, a British Vatican employee. There is also the Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga, who has a huge experience, is multilingual and will support a candidate who is in accordance with the pastoral priorities of Francisco.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet, the Canadian prelate who for years directed the Vatican’s office to the appointment of the bishops, is also a figure likely to influence the process, such as Ghana’s Cardinal Peter Turkson, who directs the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, and New York Cardinal Timothy Dolan. Some of the most critical voices come from among the retired cardinals, such as Joseph Zen, from Hong Kong, who has been a fastened critic of Francis and the Vatican’s diplomatic approach to China.

There are also a considerable number of cardinals that may want to follow Francis’ reforms, but to do so with a more predictable pope with less the “shock and dread” of the late pontiff.

Opening Opposition to Reforms

During the pontificate of Francis, a group of cardinals gave the highly unusual step of publicly challenging the Pope on his decision to allow communion to divorced and resurgated Catholics, while, on two occasions, anonymous memorandum of unidentified cardinals were published strongly criticizing Francis.

The first was published under the pseudonym “Demos” and later revealed that it was written by Australian Cardinal George Pell, which Francis had appointed Vatican treasurer. The second, “Demos II,” accused the late Pope of governance in an autocratic style and said that the next pontiff must work for the “recovery and restoration of the truths that were slowly obscured or lost among many Christians.”

The next Conclave will take place in the middle of the brightness of social networks and the cardinals will have to make sure they closely examine candidates. A church historian wrote about the possible “catastrophe” of a newly elected pope to be forced to fire himself, in an imaginary scenario in which the allegations of not treating a complaint of sexual abuse suddenly arose on the internet. This papal election takes place in an atmosphere where an allegation, if it holds, can quickly torped a candidacy.

In addition, there are many forces in the church that seek to influence the vote, many of them well -financed, organized and with links to the United States. In December 2024, a website entitled “The College of Cardinals Report” was launched, which presents an analysis of the position of cardinals regarding the blessing of same-sex couples, the ordering of deacons and the “Vatican-China secret agreements”. The website comes from groups that deeply oppose the pontificate of Francis.

And six years earlier, it was known that a group in the United States was trying to get more than one million dollars to compile dossiers about the candidates in an attempt to avoid a repetition of the conclave that elected Francisco. When members of this group, “The Red Hat Report,” presented their project, portrayed it as an attempt to improve governance and responsibility within the church and said that “we had not had Pope Francis” if this group existed at the time.

For several years before the Pope’s death, those who opposed his papacy had been discussing the way he influences the next conclave. In 2020, two books were published, both with the title “The Next Pope”, both of authors known for being critics of Francis. One of them was even distributed among his peers by Dolan, the American cardinal, despite the laws of the church that say the prelates should not publicly discuss potential papal candidates.

A driving force behind some of the pre-contest maneuvers was Pell, which had a formidable network of contacts and was politically skilled: the Australian prelate had allegedly pushed the conservative Hungarian Cardinal Péter ERDő as a papal candidate.

After his conviction for sexual abuse of minors was annulled by the Australian Supreme Court, Pell returned to Rome and assumed an active role in preparing the next conclave. However, Pell’s death in January 2023 at the age of 81 left the opposition to Francis without an obvious leader.

Partition lines

When the cardinals decide who should be elected Pope, several factors will be taken into consideration. A potential dividing line of the Pope’s decision to allow the blessing of same -sex people with several bishops in Africa and Europe from the east to resist this measure may arise. Would the Cardinals of Africa and Eastern Europe vote in a block in a candidate that sympathizes with their opinions on this subject?

The fact that Francis has chosen cardinals from very different parts of the world means that some of the papal voters are not very well known to each other. Some also do not speak Italian, the Vatican’s work language (although English and Spanish are widely used). This gives an advantage to any candidate who has had the opportunity to know the cardinals well and who played a call or leadership role during the pre-contest period.

In 2005, the fact that Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger guided pre-competition meetings, his linguistic abilities, and the homily he preached in a mass before the vote played a key role in his election as Pope Benedict XVI.

After the Papacy of Francis, full of action, there may be other cardinals who, although supporting the late Pope, want someone who is less media and disturbing. They can choose someone discreet.

However, it seems likely that anyone who is chosen as a Pope will be expected by Catholics from around the world to continue with the great reforms that Francis began and to try to “institutionalize” the changes he ordered in the Catholic Church.

But one should not ignore the determination of those who seek to find any way to stop Francisco’s project.