The Russian War against Ukraine may be entering a crucial moment.
US President Donald Trump, according to what CNN He reported on Friday (25), was surprised and frustrated with the difficulty of fulfilling his promise to end the war.
He said he wants Ukraine to give territories in exchange for peace, essentially the control of Crimea – the peninsula that Russia first invaded in 2014.
Russians control almost 20% of Ukraine, much of which could be lost with the current proposal of the Americans.
The US is considering although its outlet has been contrary to international law.
All Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to do, in Trump’s view, is to stop fighting.
This would leave Putin rewarded for invading Ukraine if he can officially maintain the number of territories. If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky does not give in, the US threatened to remove support for the country.
Ukrainians have talked to Americans and Europeans in London, informing about their version of a plan, in which a ceasefire would precede any discussion about the assignment of territory.
Pope Francis in Rome this weekend.
If there will be a breakthrough for peace, if the whole two -way process will explode or if inertia will settle and war will continue, it may be clear in the coming days.
Meanwhile, hostilities continue. A Russian general was killed in a bomb car near Moscow on Friday. Russian attacks still target Ukrainian cities, despite the social networks: “Vladimir, stop!”.
Will Ukraine give up on Crimea?
Trump believes yes.
“Crimea will be with Russia,” he told April 22. “And Zelensky understands that, and everyone understands that this has been with them for a long time,” continued Trump.
Russia first invaded Crimea in 2014, but despite the moral indignation and sanctions, it did not face other consequences such as those later, when it tried to invade the rest of Ukraine in 2022. Trump’s seems to be the idea that Crimea will be controlled by Russia.
Zelensky publicly rejected the idea of assigning the territory.
But other important Ukrainians seem to be open to the idea. Kiev mayor Vitali Klitschko, a former boxing champion, told the BBC that he is not involved in the negotiations, but to give up the crime may be necessary.
“It’s not fair. But for peace, temporary peace, perhaps it can be a temporary solution,” said Klitschko.
Would a concession in Crimea lead to a peace plan?
Washington Post columnist David Ignatius argues that if both sides manage to overcome the question of Crimea, other details can be set, including if European troops will support Ukraine’s safety and if the US will be present, perhaps protecting and operating a nuclear plant.
Nick Paton Walsh, da CNNIt is not so sure, largely because it is unclear what Trump wants from Putin and if the Russian will give up something. He writes:
“The main problem is that Putin believes that time is in his favor and Trump has repeatedly stated that time is passing. These two contrasting positions will not result in a lasting agreement.
Kremlin might have wisely hit that it can, over months, pull small concessions from the White House and slowly build a geopolitical scenario more favorable to it. Consider the first 90 days of Trump’s presidency and how much the world has already changed in favor of Moscow. ”
What is wrong with the US recognize Crimea as part of Russia?
Russia violated international law by invading Crimea, as Ivana Kottosová, from CNN. Zelensky has so far rejected the idea of giving in to Crimea, noting that this would violate the constitution of Ukraine.
If the US recognized Crimea as Russian, they would break the American word repeatedly.
Of the report of Kottosová:
“Recognizing Crimea as part of Russia would put the Trump government in violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which the US pledged to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders in exchange for Kiev’s resignation to its nuclear weapons.
In 2018, during the first Trump administration, then secretary of state Mike Pompeo issued a statement by reaffirming US refusal to recognize Kremlin’s sovereignty claims about Crimea. ”
What does it mean if Putin can keep Crimea?
“This means that it basically disturbed the international order,” said retired colonel Cedric Leighton, military analyst at CNN on Friday.
“In essence, what he did was create a situation in which we return to the 19th century, where strength does justice, and that is what he wants,” Leighton said, comparing Putin’s actions to the invasion of Czechoslovakia by Nazi Germany in the 1930s.
Ukrainians feel that Crimea has been part of their country since the fall of the Soviet Union. In more than a decade since Russia took it, Putin has worked to “russifies” Crimea.
There are also considerations on resources, as Crimea and other disputed parts of Ukraine are rich in oil, natural gas and other resources. Finally, Crimea is on the banks of the Black Sea and offers important strategic advantages to Russia.
What if Zelensky doesn’t give in and the US, how did they threaten, withdraw?
“What means ‘to withdraw’ is still a question that no one has a really clear understanding,” according to Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior researcher at the Center for a new US security and former US National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia.
“Does this only mean that the United States will no longer be involved in the diplomatic process to try to end the war? Or means that the United States will pack and will go home completely, including the end of any remaining military aid?” CNN.
Would Ukraine still fight without US support?
Ukraine depends on US support, especially for air defense and intelligence. But it also built its own resources and refers to Europe.
“Ukrainians won’t stop fighting if the United States packed and withdraw,” said Kendall-Taylor.
It is the Ukrainian drones that are causing most of the casualties among the Russian soldiers at this time, he said. Ukrainians are also producing long -range drones that can reach Russia, which means that Ukraine may prefer to gain time to “convince Putin that it cannot remain in this conflict indefinitely.”
Do Putin have any incentive to end the war?
“Not much,” according to Kendall-Taylor. “And that’s exactly why we have seen so much intransigence on his part to make any progress toward the war.”
“It is really in his interest to continue with the winding, to try to demonstrate that they [a Rússia] They are cooperating so they can preserve the US-Russian relationship, ”he said.
“The desired result [por Putin] It would be to preserve this relationship and get the United States to abandon Ukraine, ”she added.
Will Europe fill the void left by the US?
Michael Kimmage, former state department’s department and Ukraine, who now runs the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center, has said it seems unlikely that the US Congress takes more expenses to help Ukraine and that Europe, particularly Germany, is mobilizing to fill this void.
“This is deep,” he said of Germany’s change to prioritize security in his spending.
“In a way, Trump is radicalizing German foreign policy, and there is a need to advance as soon as possible in the direction of (US) independence, he continued.
“If Germany will spend a trillion dollars in defense over the next two years, much of it will go to Ukraine, or serve as a guarantee to support Ukraine,” he added.
But this is a change that will take time.
“It is not as if Germany could replace the United States in the short term, but it can balance the Erratic and Basically Anti-Uct nature of the presidency of Trump,” he concluded.
