Beer sales and men’s clothing are falling, the lipstick ones on the rise. The recipe for the borders and the tips of the dancers fell… and there are less blondes. Non-traditional indicators of economic activity are sending us worrying signals: the economy is in trouble.
While some people eagerly observe the stock market looking for signs of recession, others are looking for Most subtle evidence that the economy is in trouble.
One of them is Catherine de Noiredoctoral student in organizational psychology, influencer and manager of a legalized brothel. When the business in his brothel suffers an unexpected fall, from Noire interprets him as a sign that The economy is in troubletells the.
Although it is headquartered in Europe, Ede Noire La believes that the economic agitation In the United States “triggers a huge uncertaintyOn the other side of the Atlantic due to the American global influence.
Of black notou For the first time a decline in the business Soon after Donald Trump was elected in November 2024 – at a time when Americans and the rest of the world anticipated some turbulence.
As Strippers in the USA are also having difficulties. The dancer and influencer Vulgar Vanity says that when he started dancing in 2022, he could earn thousands of euros just dancing During major events, such as the Formula 1 Grand Prix and the South by Southwest music festival.
This year is different. “I didn’t even bother to work at South by Southwest because the first Friday the night I tried to work, I entered a club completely empty and I didn’t earn any money“ influencer.
Vanity says many of its usual customers They are not giving tips or they are giving less than half of what they used. Stresses that it is just a dancer and “obviously not an economist”But notes that other dancers and workers who depend on tips are also suffering.
Their theory is that customers no longer give such generous tips due to the increase in costs and economic uncertainty. Vanity is concerned that this means that we are on the verge of a total recession or depression.
Will these cunning women be right?
Indicators such as a decline in the brothel business, lower tips for strippers and other Non -traditional measures of economic health “They have a certain validity, but may be more coincident indicators than“, He explains Marta Nortonstrategizes in an investment company Nova Yorquina
Although Norton considers this interesting type of Episodic Evidencesays it analyzes more traditional data sourcesespecially the profits of companies and the stock market, to predict whether a recession is in our future.
For these traditional measures, says Norton, “We can be slowing down“But we are not facing an imminent recession.”Yet“.
Catherine de Noire believes that the rates Donald Trump announced in what she called “” will definitely contribute to a greater decline and recession, and have their own data to support this opinion. But there are other evidence that Something with the economy.
Non -traditional indices
The past showed that non-traditional measures can tell us Much about the health of the economy, and there are currently several activity rates that have worrying signs, notes HuffPost.
First, the “Brothel index ”. According to Noire, the movement on your brothel usually increases in spring, when people give up on their New Year’s resolutions and recover from the spending of the parties.
But this year, the business is down. From Noire attributes the “huge fall” in her brothel’s income to customer insecurity about the economy.
“There are significantly fewer customers to enter, and sex workers are reporting visibly lower earnings – About half of what they earned during the same period last year, ”says the candidate for doctorate.
Second from Noire, this suggests that People are saving money or relocating your spending to things you consider most essential, probably because you are preparing for difficult times.
Another worrying sign is the “DAS strippers index“, Which are often the first to notice a drop in the economy. The dancers “are obviously not a priority or domestic need” and “are the first to feel because we are the first to be set aside,” explains Vanity.
Second David Kindnessaccountant and finance expert, “the ‘strippers’ index is one of those strange but strangely effective indicatorsEconomic Health: It follows how much strippers are gaining and how often customers go to strip clubs.
“When tips decrease and the movement of customers reduces, it usually means that people are saving their extra money“, explicou Kindness.
O “Beer index”It is also a good indicator that there is a recession on the horizon, says Jack BuffingtonAssistant Professor of Supply Chain Management at Denver University.
“Beer is a discretionary and social expense“Buffington explains.“ That’s why people reduce what they spend on beer when they are concerned about the economy. ”
It is much cheaper to buy a six beer pack than drinking pressure beer at a night out, says the teacher. A drop in pressure beer consumption, in expensive craft beers in particularit is a foreshadowing of recession.
“Craft beer sales are very low,” notes Buffington.
Another worrying indicator is the “Men’s Interior Clothing Index“In 2008, the former president of the Federal Reserve, Alan GreenspanHe noted that the drop in male interior sales probably meant that we were on our way to a recession.
“There is a worrying trend. Sales have fallen 6% in recent months,” says Lokenauth. “Men just fail to replace inland clothing When they are worried about money, so we can be in trouble. ”
In the opposite direction the “Lipstick Index“, Which illustrates a seemingly contradictory consumption pattern during economic recessions, explains the financial data analyst Kevin Shahnazari: When the economy is down, Sales rise.
The “lipstick index” does not only apply to lipstick, but to other consumer habits: when money is scarce, consumers replace expensive shopping with small cheap luxuries such as lipstick.
“In the 2008 recession, Cosmetics sales increasedshowing that even in difficult times, people want Small comfort purchases that give psychological impulses without a big financial disbursement, ”explains Shahnazari.“ When money is missing, people tend to avoid expensive dinner, but they can Have a coffee, or go to the cinema“.
And finally, the “Brunette“If we notice that there are fewer blond hairstyles, this can be a sign that a recession is approaching.
“Os designers are one of the first to notice changes economic and, lately, many say that customers ask for simpler and cheaper options“, Says Kindness.“ Customers change their hairstyles that require a lot of maintenance to looks Natural that require less care as a way to save money.
“There are signs that spending on beauty salons are decreasing,” notes the accountant. “If you come around ‘brunettes of recession’, who were once blondesit can be a sign that A recession is coming“.
Apparently, all these non-traditional rates of economic activity are leaving us signs that we are in Sarilhos…
