Financial agents did not change the projections of IPCA, GDP and the basic interest rate, Selic
Financial market analysts decreased the projection of inflation to 5.55%, compared to 5.57%. It is the 2nd week that the market decreases the rate estimate. The market measures inflation by the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index).
Market agents did not change the estimate of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate and basic interest rate, Selic. The projections are, respectively, 2.0%, R $ 5.90 and 15.0%. The projections are from the Focus Bulletin, released this Monday (28.ab.2025) by the BC (Central Bank). This is the report (PDF – 888kb).
For 2026, analysts reduced the projection of the dollar exchange rate to $ 5.95, compared to $ 5.96. The estimated inflation was raised to 4.51%. The previous week the value was and 4.50%. The market maintained the estimate of GDP and Selic at 1.70% and 12.50%, respectively.
What is Focus
Once has been released by Monday and has summarized since 2000 the statistical projections of economists and market operators consulted by the Central Bank. It is possible to know the institutions that get it right.
