The Cardinal team that will elect the next Pope about 1.4 billion Catholics around the world is more unpredictable than ever, as they have no prior experience in papal cobblestone participation. In addition, the greatest geographical dispersion of the cardinals intensifies uncertainty.
The majority of those who have the right to vote in the Conclave have been appointed in the last 12 years. In fact, twenty of them became cardinals as soon as the past December. Many had not even met each other before arriving in Rome last week after the Pope’s death on Monday.
As the Guardian reports, the papal concussion is expected to begin official consultations next week, although informal discussions and pressures on the corridors, restaurants and gardens in the Vatican have been intensified in recent days.
“In fact, the talks have probably started for a long time, certainly from the beginning of the year because,” said Miles Penten, a historian of the Catholic Church at the University of Oxford.
More than 20 cardinals have been designated by Vatican observers as Papabili – candidates for priests. However, few of the initial dominants manage to withstand successive votes. In 2013, Jorge Mario Bergolio was not considered a favorite, but at the end of Conclavium he was elected Pope Francis.
The camps
Among those who will probably push for a conservative successor is Raymond Berk, a US bishop who has expressed support for Donald Trump, and Gerhard Miller from Germany.
The progressive camp includes Jean-Claude Ollerich from Luxembourg, Timothy Radcliff from the United Kingdom and Michael Cernine from Canada.
Some critics accuse Franciscus of “filled” the Cardinal College with supporters, appointing more than 100 cardinals during his papacy. But as Paden says: “Historically, no Pope has managed to control the election of his successor.”
Although there are clear conservative and progressive cardinals, “it is more a spectrum,” he added. “In others – for example, in terms of sexuality or climate change.”
Francis tended to promote his ideologically “relatives”, but did not appoint exclusively to those who agreed with him. He had other priorities – he wanted the Cardinal College to be as much as possible, which led him to choose men from small Catholic communities, such as those in Iran, Algeria and Mongolia, and to remove emphasis from rich Europe.
In 2013, more than half of the cardinals came from Europe. Today, this figure has fallen to 39%, while 18% comes from Asia, 18% from Latin America and the Caribbean, and 12% from sub -Saharan Africa.
Francis also tried to throw the average age at the Cardinal College. Seven of the Cardinalians appointed last December was under 60 years old, with the youngest – Mikola Bitsok, of Ukrainian bishop in Melbourne – only 44 years old. Cardinals were appointed by countries such as Peru, Ecuador, Algeria and Iran, in an effort to move the center of gravity beyond Europe.
Under pressure to quickly end up in the next Pope
The first vote will take place shortly after the start of Conclavium and then votes will be followed every morning and afternoon until a candidate gathers two -thirds majority.
The cardinals “will be under great pressure to end up relatively quickly,” Penten said. “The whole world will have their eyes on them and the faithful may worry if the conception lasts until June or July.”
In the last century, most of the concussions lasted two to three days. In the 13th century, the longest concussion lasted two years and nine months, and as soon as it was 1503, when it was elected a Pope within a few hours.
The favorites
The favorites for the Franciscan succession are Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s head of diplomat, and Luis Antonio Tangle, a Cardinal from the Philippines.
The prediction of the result of Conclavium has already evolved into one of the most popular betting markets this year. Professor of Economics and Finance at Nottingham Business Administration School, Leiton Von Williams, told AFP: “It has evolved into a worldwide market for millions of dollars, accessible with one click.”
He added that the speed at which betting activity was launched this year “underlines the constant cultural charm of papacy, enhanced by journalistic coverage and pop culture”.
