The favorite cardinals to become the next Pope have already arrived at the Vatican for the conclave. Voting to choose the new pontiff starts on May 7th.
On the date, 135 Cardinal voters will meet in the Sistine Chapel to define who will succeed Francis in the command of the Catholic Church.
It generates discussions around names considered strong candidates. There is even an Italian term to define these cardinals: “papabile” (“papable” in literal translation).
Italian Cardinal Angelo Becciu, the highest employee of the Catholic Church ever tried in a Vatican criminal court ,.
The cardinal was condemned for embezzlement and fraud.
Pietro Parolin
The Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, has been working since 2013 as Secretary of State for the Vatican-a position that basically gathers the functions of a Prime Minister and a Foreign Minister, as well as being considered the Pope’s “number 2”.
Sources with knowledge of the Vatican heard by CNNwho spoke on the condition of anonymity, say they see Parolin as a strong candidate and highlight their nearly 40 years of experience in diplomacy of the Holy See.
The Vatican describes the Cardinal as someone “particularly specializing in matters related to the Middle East and the geopolitical situation of the Asian continent.”
Between 2009 and 2013, he also acted as Apostolic Nuncio (a kind of “Holy See Ambassador”) in Venezuela, in a time of crisis in the relationship of the Catholic Church with the government of Hugo Chavez. Parolin also played an important role in the intermediation of negotiations that led to the resumption of relations of Cuba and USA in 2015.
If the cardinal’s diplomatic profile in a swarm world of conflict is seen as a strong point for some experts, others highlight their cons.
A source highlighted CNNon the condition of anonymity, which Parolin is seen as “a Vatican bureaucrat” and is expected “that this is an increasingly less likely figure in the papacy.” “Although Parolin fit into the criteria of continuity and ease of articulation, he does not have the most likely history for a Pope,” he said.
Australian Vaticanist Paul Collins assessed that Parolin has strong identification with Francis’ ideas, “but has no pastoral experience and never managed a diocese.”
Collins also cited “complex financial scandals” that took place at the Secretariat of State during the Cardinal’s term. “At the beginning of Francisco’s papacy, he was seen as a ‘hot’ name, but his brightness decreased considerably,” he added.
Matteo Zuppi
The favorite for the dispute, in Collins’s view, is the Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi – another name in all circulating lists.
Like Parolin, he also carries great diplomatic experience in his performance in the “Community of Santo Egidio” – Catholic organization dubbed “The Little UN of Trastevere”, in reference to the Roman neighborhood where his thirst is.
For example, in 1992, Zuppi was one of the mediators who reached the peace agreement to end more than 16 years of a bloody civil war in Mozambique. The cardinal was also chosen as the Pope’s envoy to deal with the war in Ukraine.
“Zuppi has in his favor the experience in the community of Santo Egidio, an organization very tuned with the Pastoral Line of Francisco, and the post at the Italian Episcopal Conference, which also qualifies him as a political articulator,” said a source.
An article by Vatican Specialist Marco Roncalli, translated by the Humanitas Unisinos Institute, points out that Zuppi “has become a point of reference in the urban life of Catholics and non -Catholic, believers and non -believers, almost a civil authority beyond religious, with immense ability to mediate and concertation.”
Pierbatista pizzaballa
Another Italian quoted as “Papabile” is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa.
Since 2016, he has commanded the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem – one of the most important Catholic archdiocese, with jurisdiction over Palestine, Israel, Jordan and Cyprus.
Since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas, he has recurrently made appeals for peace and even offered in exchange for the release of children kidnapped by the Palestinian group. He also worked with the Order of Malta – Catholic International Organization – to send humanitarian aid to Gaza.
A source heard by CNN considers Pizzaballa a “surprise candidate” in the conclave. “It’s the one who runs out, but has great chances. It’s Italian, but made a career in the midst of the Middle East wars. It has a very strong spirituality and the context of the wars has made this spirituality known worldwide,” he said.
“And a curiosity: it’s the closest to the Cardinal Pope’s profile in the movie ‘Conclave’,” he added.
Another source considers that the contact so close with these wars can take votes from the cardinal. “We have to remember that the church does not like to touch sensitive areas, such as regions with ongoing conflicts. But if the cardinals want just that – to raise more, provoke a reflection on an area of crisis – they can really opt for pizzaballa,” he said.
The idea of the next pope is Italian – which would be the case of Zuppi, Parolin or Pizzaballa – is an issue that divides experts.
Australian Vaticanist Phil Collins, for example, believes that cardinals can choose someone more familiar with the functioning of the Roman Curia (Vatican Administration) to consolidate Francisco’s reforms – which would favor Italian cardinals, who live in this environment.
Already an expert heard by CNN ponders that the choice of an Italian could seem a setback in the internationalization of the church.
Luis Antonio Tagle
If the choice of the next Pope does not go towards Italy, Cardinal Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle is pointed out among the main competitors.
Archbishop Emeritus of Manila and proclaimed Cardinal in 2012, Tagle has already been nicknamed “The Asian Francisco” because of his relationship with the poor.
The “Crux” website, which specializes in coverage of the Catholic and Vatican Church, published an article, which described Cardinal Tagle as “a moderate oriented to social justice, which is best known for his defense of immigrants and the poor, and whose personal life style speaks of modesty and simplicity”.
A source told CNN that tagle “is a strong candidate”. “It has a history of social commitment and comes from the East, where the church is usually more traditionalist than in Europe. It could make a bridge easier with the conservatives and would show an increase in the internationalization of the church,” he said.
Collins believes that administrative problems in the international charity institution during Tagle’s management can take their prominence among cardinals. Another source also highlights the fact that Tagle comes from a family of Chinese descent and China is a sensitive theme in the church.
The pontificate of Francisco signed a historic agreement in 2018 that appeared to relations with Beijing, but the pact faced criticism – especially from the conservative wing.
Papabili lists also bring other cardinals with chances of being elected Pope and, like the last examples cited, would be aligned with the idea of continuity of the pontificate of Francis and consolidation of the reforms initiated.
They are the French cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, the Maltese Mario Grech, who acts as secretary of the Bishops Synod, Portuguese Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça, American Robert Francis Prevost and British Arthur Roche.
Although considered highly unlikely, experts have also analyzed the possibility of surprising everyone and cardinals opt for a conservative name and contrast with church ideas in the last decade.
Peter forest
The project “College of Cardinals”, linked to the conservative Catholic publisher Sophia Institute Press, highlights the name of Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdő, which was also considered among the main candidates in the 2013 conclave, which elected Pope Francis.
Collins agrees that conservative support – which is minimal in the current composition of the group of voters cardinals – must be clustered around ERDő. But the Australian historian believes that the cardinal’s Eurocentrism and his proximity to the authoritarian government led by Protestant Prime Minister Viktor Orbán critically decrease his chances of becoming Pope in the next conclave.
