Chaos in the market and economic uncertainty have been a feature of the president’s early months around him. THE DealBook analyzes the milestones and what to wait next.
Turbulent start
When President Trump took office in January for his second term, business leaders anticipated a administration that would reduce taxes, loosen regulations, and open business opportunities. Instead, Wall Street received chaos.
The president attacked global trade with huge tariffs, threatened the independence of the Federal Reserve [Fed, o banco central americano] and made the scenario for more uncertain mergers and acquisitions.
Under Trump, the S&P 500 fell about 8%, the worst performance in the first 100 days of a term since President Gerald Ford in 1974. At that time, the Watergate scandal caused political instability and the economy faced a recession and an oil crisis.
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This year, markets were severely impacted by the president’s protectionist trade policy.
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Here are the themes that defined Trump’s first 100 days in office. The president will celebrate the occasion with a rally in Michigan tonight, and the White House is expected to announce relief in car tariffs.
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In this sense, General Motors, on Tuesday, removed its forecast for the year by reporting results from the first quarter. “The previous orientation cannot be considered reliable” amid the uncertainty of tariffs, said Paul Jacobson, CFO of the company.
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Markets and economy
Trump inherited a robust job market, an enviable growing economy and a record stock market. Many foreign investors have ignored inflationary uncertainty and federal debt mountain to invest in American assets, giving rise to the idea of ”American exceptionalism.”
Much of this was harmed by Trump’s trade war. Their rates, the highest level in a century, affected global supply chains and redesigned business alliances, undermined the confidence of companies and consumers, and increased the chances of a recession.
Investors now talk about “selling America”. The driving of the economy by Trump, a longtime strong point, is weighing in its popularity, showed the latest research Times/Siena College.
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Another possible blow: Amazon will supposedly begin to detail the cost of tariffs in the final price of an item, according to the Punchbowl News.
The coming weeks may be decisive. The impact of tariffs has not yet been reflected significantly on inflation, GDP and employment reports. This can change with new data scheduled for this week, placing the Fed in a prolonged limbo in relation to interest rates.
All looks will be focused on commercial agreements. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that an agreement with India could be closed first by offering clues about what the government can achieve. Still, an agreement with China, the largest to be achieved, seems distant.
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The question: Will the tariff turmoil harm other areas of Trump’s agenda, including tax cuts?
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Government cuts
When the DealBook Summed Trump’s first week, we mentioned the “Elon Musk factor”, the likelihood that Trump and the richest man in the world soon find the global scenario too small to share. The first fissure came shortly after Trump’s inauguration: Musk ruled out a $ 100 billion AI initiative, which was the president’s first major technology agreement.
Last week, Musk announced that he would spend less time in Washington from May, stating that the main work to implement his cost cutting effort was largely completed. That said, the purpose of your initiative is to save about $ 150 billion, below the previous $ 2 trillion.
Here’s a little of what Musk did in her 100 days in office:
Effectively the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which employed 10,000 people.
He fired at least 1,200 employees from the National Health Institute (NIH) and proposed to cut up to $ 5 billion in estimated annual funds for the research agency.
Flavored thousands of civil officials from the Department of Defense with the expectation of 55,000 more cuts.
It helped cut what can be equivalent to about a third of the IRS workforce through postponement and postponement.
It cut billions in US postal service spending and plans to dismiss up to 10,000 people.
In all, the musk group eliminated more than 200,000 federal positions until March, according to an estimate of the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Relocation company. According to an analysis, musk cuts will eventually cost taxpayers $ 135 billion in productivity loss, rehirers and paid licenses for thousands of people.
A large redefinition occurred in March. In an explosive cabinet meeting, Musk argued with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, accusing him not to do enough to cut costs. “You didn’t fired anyone,” said Musk.
Trump eventually defended Rubio and established basic rules: Cabinet chiefs would command his departments and Musk would be a counselor. It was the first clear sign that the president was willing to impose limits on the power of the billionaire.
What to wait below: Musk may be about to devote less time to their government work, but they expect more cuts. The government seeks economies to compensate for the expected impact of the extension of corporate tax cuts, in which Congress is working this week.
Reductions in the federal workforce may appear in Friday’s job report. Economists expect about 150,000 jobs to have been created in April, a sharp drop from 228,000 in March.
Attack on institutions
Trump did not only attacked universities and legal profession – which in itself would be unconventional – but also aimed at specific institutions, acts that were once unthinkable.
Trump aimed at some elite educational institutions. One of the main reasons he cited is what he called failure to combat anti -Semitism. Many, such as Columbia University, gave in to the demands in the hope of recovering canceled bags and contracts.
Last week, Harvard became the first university to sue the government because of repression. The university has received a list of more costly requirements, and its resistance may have helped boost a coalition of 400 university leaders to react. In response, the Trump government has froze $ 2.2 billion in bag financing and is valuing the revocation of Harvard’s fiscal exemption status.
(Hundreds of lawyers have left the Justice Department’s civil rights division in recent days after being instructed to focus on cases against Ivy League.)
Trump also attacked the law sector. He issued executive orders to revoke the security authorizations of various law firms, necessary to carry out much of his work.
The offices divided into two groups. Some, like Paul Weiss, have negotiated Trump agreements that include hundreds of millions of dollars at work for the bono. Others, such as Jenner & Block, have filed lawsuits to block orders.
Both campaigns include efforts to interrupt Dei programs [sigla para diversidade, equidade e inclusão]. Trump’s requirements to Harvard, for example, included “all preferences based on race, color and nationality.” Paul Weiss’s agreement required the office to reiterate its commitment to “hiring, promoting and retention based on merit” and hiring an external expert to audit its recruitment practices.
What to wait below: Now the ball is in the courts. Harvard’s process argues that the government seeks unconstitutional control over the university and ignored due process of law. So far, he has not sought an injunction, a sign that he believes the court can act quickly.
And last week, two federal judges seemed receptive to the arguments of two major law firms, Perkins Coie and Wilmerhale, that the orders against them should be permanently blocked for flagrantly violating the Constitution.
The result of these cases can help determine whether Trump’s attacks will generate lasting changes in the operation of US institutions – or just headlines.
