Ribeirão Preto (SP) – On the atypical rainy day that inaugurated Agrishow in 2025, Carlos Aguiar, director of Agribusiness of Santanderbrought some equally gray perspectives to the 2025/26 crop. THE Crop plan It will not escape the scenario of high interest rates, as might be expected.
“I was in Brasilia last Wednesday and the conversation is a small increase in rates, for all lines, except a line of microcredit or a Pronaf producer,” Aguiar told journalists, in a mention of the family farming credit program. The “small increase” should be in 1.5%, he said.
While the producer struggles to break up, the executive sees the less sought after investment lines this year. “If I’m indebted, how am I going to invest more? If I have a tight flow, how am I going to buy a new car?” He asked.
For him, the time is to put his foot on the brake and focus on renegotiating debts instead of thinking about expansion, even in the middle of the record crop. Also because the margin of the rural producer, who reached 40%, today is in the house of 20%to 25%, in Santander estimates.
“It is very difficult for the producer to pay the investment passed in today’s flow, even with the higher price and better productivity than the last crop,” said Aguiar. It is expected that the “hangover” of the recent crisis will pass on two or three good harvests.
The Santander Wallet
Accompanying the most delicate current moment, the expansion of Santander’s wallet should also be more contained, in 5%, said Aguiar. Today, the wallet is $ 100 billion, with half destined for farmers. In terms of crops, 80% is in soy, corn and livestock.
In the relationship with the rural producer, the private bank’s revenue has been to minimize volatility to the rural producer, avoiding dollar lines and or linked to the CDI and preferring prefixed.
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“For the producer who is in need of help, I prefer to offer prefixed because he knows how much he will pay in all installments. There are people who lent money in Selic and Dollar and has seen what happened. Two months ago the dollar was $ 6.20 and now is $ 5.60. I prefer to lend in dollar or Selic for more structured producers, with good leverage,” he explained.
Caution is a watchword not only in the crop, but in the bank too. “Everyone is having the same problem as me, a leveraged piece, a piece that needs to lengthen. If I bring someone from another bank, I will probably solve someone’s problem. This goes to everyone. If someone says it will grow 25%, 30% this year, good luck,” he said.
In this sense, the bank has focused on the renegotiation of debt with all producers who are part of its portfolio, except for who requested judicial recovery or who left the rural activity. The main tools have been the most elongated deadlines – since you can’t escape market interest rates.
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“I can give deadline and help pay. But, as with individuals when you make your hand, some producers will have to sell some things to pay the bills,” said Aguiar.
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