The availability of one of the most reputed US experts in negotiations to the request for the interview conducted by the newspaper from the other corner of the world is surprised. But Marty Latz does not seem to be one of those who like to beg and access the requirement. In fact, we only have to ‘negotiate’ at one point: to agree on the time of videoconference conversation, given the huge time lag between Arizona and Barcelona.
In general terms, what are the principles that must govern a negotiation?
The most important thing is to have strategic mentality. Most people instinctively negotiate. In the last 40 years investigations have been carried out and we know that there is a good way to negotiate and a bad way of negotiating. The important thing is to have an objective, design your strategy to achieve it, and use tactics based on a solid research (prior).
Donald Trump says he is the best negotiator in the world. So far, how would you value your performance with Russia?
Trump is a negotiator governed by instincts. His history, both in business and in his first mandate and president, is of negative results in important quotes. Yes, he managed to close important agreements: the Trump Tower, Mar-a-Lago, a mansion that he bought in a very intelligent way … but also, as negotiated with the stomach, he made serious mistakes, facing bankruptcies. His instinct is not all the good that he believes. To understand what is important for Trump regarding Russia we have to go back to his first term in 2016. The reason for his affinity towards Putin, which many analysts do not understand, is clear. There is no doubt that Russia and Putin helped him be chosen. If pursuing crimes were committed, it is another issue. Trump feels that it depends on Putin for his political success.
Why do you always press Ukraine and not Russia?
In part, for his relationship with Putin. But there is more. Trump admires dictators for their ability to impose millions of people. Obviously, here in the US there are important limitations, but tries to reduce those limits. And one last piece in the Puzzle of the Russia/Ukraine equation: the terrible shame that derived from its failed negotiation with Volodimir Zelenski, in his first mandate, when he asked him for help to go against the Biden family. Zelenski did not accept. Trump has a particular animosion because he could not impose his will.
I think I remember that Zelenski did not say ‘no’ to Trump.
Nor did ‘Yes’ say. He avoided committing and did not face him, but he didn’t give up either, he only tried to calm him down. To him, an important person. In Trump’s thought, Zelenski didn’t give him what he wanted. And ended up being associated with one of the most embarrassing moments of his presidency: the ‘impeachment’ after that phone call.
As an expert in negotiations, explain the objectives of each side.
They are all very clear. Putin wants to reconstitute the USSR and its sphere of influence. He is willing to resort to territorial aggression. Regarding the interests of Ukraine, the EU and the US before the arrival of Trump were also very clear. We will stop the aggression against a peaceful nation made by a hostile power. If that aggression does not stop, who will be the next? Ukraine is interested in maintaining its territorial integrity as much as I can. But not only protect it now, but also in the future. Therefore, an important part of the negotiation is the presence of British, French or American troops, the only possible deterrence to Russia. The US interest after Trump’s possession moves away from it. Donald Trump is only interested in Donald Trump. The Nobel Peace wants, which means that he is interested in peace in Ukraine. But do you care if it’s lasting? Yes and no. It has a certain interest in a solid agreement, because it is the only one that the EU and Ukraine will accept. But nothing more. Another thing: even if the American is very influential in the Republican Party and its base, there is still an important part of that favorable Ukraine party. And another element: Trump has negotiated in the same way in the last 40 years, always about money, win or lose. They are financial transactions in which the subsequent relationship between parties does not matter, which is called as a zero sum negotiation: one more dollar for me will be one less dollar for you.
Do you think this mentality can be applied to Ukraine?
It is being applied, but in a counterproductive way, inconsistent with a strategic negotiation based on an investigation conducted by experts. There are huge differences between business and presidential negotiations. There are more parts and elements at stake, the times are different, there are negotiations on the table and under the table, because the presidents not only negotiate or multilaterally, but also with their populations, with their legislative, their government or army. This is not a world that Trump understands. And we see it in his failed negotiations of the first mandate: he did not force Mexico to pay for a wall that he did not even build. He failed to repeal and replace Obamacare. If it had been a good negotiator, both objectives would have achieved.
What will happen in Ukraine?
While Russia advances (on the ground) there will be no agreement. When you propose a negotiation, you have a plan A, what you want to achieve, and a plan B, what you have without agreement. While your plan B is better than your plan A, you will continue with him. Only if there is blockade (on the front, the Russians) will come to the table constructively.
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