O World Bank He predicted on Tuesday (29) that the weakening of global growth, due in part to commercial turbulence, will cause global commodity prices to fall 12% em 2025 and more 5% em 2026reaching the lower levels of the decade in real terms.
The latest report ““ shows that, adjusted by inflation, commodity prices will fall to their average between 2015 and 2019 in the next two years, marking the end of a boom prices promoted by the economic recovery after the pandemic of the COVID-19 and the invasion of Ukraine for the Russia em 2022.
Decline may moderate the risks of short -term inflation arising from new tariffs and increased commercial barriers worldwide, but may also have negative consequences for developing economies that export commodities.
“The highest prices of commodities have been a blessing to many developing economies, two thirds of which are exporters of commodities,” said the chief economist of World Bank, Indermit Gillin a statement.
“We are now seeing the highest price volatility in more than 50 years. The combination of high pricing and low prices means problems. ”
He said that these countries should restore tax discipline and create a more favorable business environment to attract private capital.
Increased energy prices added two percentage points to global inflation in 2022but the drop in prices in 2023 e 2024 It helped moderate inflation, according to the report.
Energy prices are expected to fall 17%reaching its lowest level in five years, before falling more 6% em 2026according to the report.
It is expected that the prices of crude oil Brent reach an average of US$ 64 per barrel in 2025 — a fall of US$ 17 in relation to 2024 – and only US$ 60 per barrel in 2026amid the wide supply and the fall of demand ,.
Coal prices should retreat 27% em 2025 and more 5% em 2026with the slowdown in the growth of coal consumption for power generation in the Developing economies.
According to the report, food prices should also retreat, falling 7% em 2025 and more 1% em 2026but this will not diminish food insecurity in some of the most vulnerable countries, as humanitarian aid is decreasing and armed conflicts boost acute hunger.
The report of World Bank also provides that gold prices will probably establish a new record in 2025since investors seek safe places for capital amid growing uncertainty, but the price will stabilize in 2026.
