The world’s first economy was stern wind until Donald Trump returned to the White House. The economic and commercial policy of the president of the United States has generated distrust and uncertainty and has meant a dry brake to a growth that was the envy of the world. The United States appears to the recession with a contraction of the activity of 0.1% in the first quarter. With its comings and goings with tariffs and has caused draft distortions in the behavior of economic agents.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States fell 0.1% quarterly (0.3% in annualized quarterly rate), according to the dependent data of the United States Department of Commerce, published on Wednesday. This is the first estimate, which will follow two reviews in the next two months.
The decrease in GDP is the first since the beginning of 2022. In the fourth quarter, the economy grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 2.4%, that is, 0.6% quarterly. For the first time in several years, the US economy has shown less strength than that of the euro zone,
With its economic protectionism, Trump intended to reduce the commercial deficit, but companies and consumers have advanced their purchases abroad in anticipation of the new import taxes. That has caused a commercial lag of 464,475 million dollars in the first three months of the year, an unprecedented figure that the GDP lills. In the calculation of economic activity, exports add up and imports, remain.
In addition, inflation expectations have been triggered, for more than that, in turn, it has damaged the confidence of consumers, the main engine of the US economy.
Trump’s first mandate was the worst for employment in modern history of the United States, with pandemic as the main explanation. Unlike then, the stock market and economic crisis unleashed by the Republican on this occasion is completely self -inflicted. It has squandered the inheritance received in less than 100 days not only with the commercial war, but also with the paralysis of disbursements approved by Congress, the dismissal of federal employees without guarantees, the persecution of immigration and other measures.
Numerous companies are warning that they will not comply with their sales and benefits forecasts as a consequence of the commercial war and macroeconomic uncertainty. Airlines notice that citizens are reserving less leisure trips. Other consumer companies also receive recession drums.
Trump, however, takes chest with promises from letter investments prepared by companies and Jerome Powell. Part of Trump’s attacks against Powell may be because he was looking for an scapegoat to whom to blame the damage caused by himself.
Trump’s measures have complicated the work of the Central Bank. The Federal Reserve has as a double objective the full employment and price stability. The commercial war threatens to raise prices and stop job creation. Powell recognized this month that the economy “is moving away” from both objectives and indicated that before resuming the cuts in the price of money. In principle, investors do not expect them to move at the next week meeting, but investors do bet on a cut in June.
[Noticia de última hora. Habrá actualización en breve]
