Pakistan guarantees to have “credible information” about the imminent military attack of India. After the death of 26 Tourists in the only triple nuclear junction in the world, we need to blame someone. Is there war in the Asian south?
What killed 26 Tourists last week in the region of Cashmirelong disputed by India and Pakistan, he activated the alarms, and this Tuesday, the Pakistani government said it had “credible information” that India plans an imminent military attack and promised a “decisive response” to it.
“Pakistan has credible information that India intends to launch a military attack in the next 24 to 36 hoursusing Pahalgam’s incident as a pretext, ”said Pakistan Information Minister Attaullah Tarar.“ Any aggression will be received with a decisive response. India will be fully responsible for any serious consequences in the region, ”he added in a statement.
The forces of Pakistan opened fire to Indian positions in various sectors along the border, this dawn in the region disputed, confirmed this Tuesday official sources from India.
“Pakistan violated the ceasefire and opened fire on the Indian positions … Our troops responded effectively,” Source of the Indian defense told EFE news agency.
“An act of war” from India
Pakistan denies responsibility for the death of tourists in the region managed by India – announced a “neutral” inquiry into the case – but quickly the two neighbors began to change new diplomatic “barbs” and threats.
A India threatened to withdraw from the treaty of the waters Established between the two countries, an agreement that dates back to the 1960s and governs access to water for both countries; Pakistan, in turn, closed its airspace to Indian aircraft, and the transfrontic confrontations with “small -caliber weapons” were resumed along the cashmire control line, reported.
The current situation is alarming, especially since the two regions have in their possession nuclear weapons, as well as part of northeastern caxemira being administered by the nuclear power China.
The only triple nuclear junction in the world seems to be a cake with three ingredients for the disaster, but how real is the threat of a conflict between the two nations?
Let us go back first to February 2019, when something similar happened in the same region, after a suicidal attack almost took both countries to war. Recent commercial restrictions and suspension of transportation calls are seen, as symbolic, but are doing more than “increasing temperature”, which has been hot for 6 years.
Quoted by the Pakistani government was clear: one collapse of the Indian waters’ treaty is “an act of war”and assured that it will answer if the rivers are blocked or diverted. A: Pakistan depends on the water of the India River system, which crosses India, to about 90% of its agriculture.
In Pakistan, the possibility of military retaliation in public opinion is feared. Some Pakistani analysts warn that the current impasse may exceed the intensity of previous conflicts. And notice a pattern that is familiar to them.
The attacks tend to occur when the Pakistani military “feel excluded from geopolitical conversations,” Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior investigator of the Foreign Council. In this context, the increasingly tight ties of India with the United States under Prime Minister Narendra Modi may also be contributing to a sense of isolation in Islamabad.
On the ground, in Caxemira, thousands of civilians took to the streets in protestand entrepreneurs are concerned about the impact on the region’s tourism economy, especially during the high season. However, anti-patistan manifestations in several Indian cities have broken out: Anti-Caxamian and Antimucean feeling in the country is rekindled, noted the postmassacre coverage last week.
Gravity – in “dimension and target” – of the attack makes a military retaliation almost inevitable. “It’s a real possibility at some point in the coming days”Said a southern Asian analyst, Michael Kugelman, to.
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif confirmed The country reinforced its military defensesalthough suggested that nuclear weapons would only be considered in case of existential threat.
In a conflict scenario, third parties will be involved. We talk especially about Chinaallied close to Pakistan, whose border with India and Pakistan worries. But we also talk about USAwhich supports India.
Despite the climb of tension, China has already appealed to containment and encourage both countries to resolve their divergences through dialogue, and the US met with those in charge of both countries to ask for a peaceful resolution.
Tomás Guimarães //
