Countries of a small population, often do not gain prominence in the geopolitical news, but when it comes to the second largest nation in the world, a G20 member and possessing vast natural resources, Canada always arouses interest. Despite consistent economic growth and a very high HDI, the last years of Justin Trudeau’s management have left few smiles in the middle and low class. The high taxes placed in the energy sector as part of the green initiative, the migratory crisis that became a housing crisis and explicit support for unrestricted identaryism, brought very low rates of popularity to the former prime minister and to his party. At the time of his farewell to the government, after more than 9 years in Ottawa, the Liberal Party scored worryingly, below 20 percentage points.
By advertising internal cracks in his coalition and seeing his history as a public man being stained in a few weeks, Trudeau decided to resign and move away from his party leadership, one of the most traditional leftist within Canada. Their main opponents, the conservatives, saw in the young politician’s weakness their chance to return to power after almost a decade. The eloquent opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre, was notable in the networks through fervent debates with the Prime Minister in Parliament, placing himself harsily alongside the middle class and not hesitating to blame Trudeau for the inflationary pressure that concerns Canadian families. In this context, conservatives have seen their voting intentions to shoot, exceeding 40% and believing in a large majority government to apply their reforms.
However, an earthquake started on the southern border throughout the United States in November 2024 would soon spread through the center of American power and change the entire international conjuncture, which was once under control. Donald Trump’s victory and possession have transformed Canada, a neighboring nation and friendly, into one of the main ideological and economic rivals in the North America regional scene. Since the first day of his term, 25% rates for Canadian products have been announced and later put into practice. The Republican also made use of his social networks to suggest that Canada would live in a much better situation if he joined the United States as a 51st state, abandoning his sovereignty. Such a speech was automatically rejected by the Canadian political class of both spectra, but would become the backbone of a political campaign that already seemed decided.
Mark Carney, an economist without political experience, was the winner of the liberal primaries and heir to a complex political picture to try to minimize the defeat already imagined. His most technical and relative popular ignorance profile seemed not to please the Canadian electorate initially. However, election campaigns take unexpected directions and can bring victories unpretentiously. Carry, aware of the negative internal scenario produced by Trudeau, bet on rivaling Donald Trump to raise the motivation of his supporters and win the undecided. He then left for a campaign focused on external issues, without highlighting the internal problems. While Poilievre was more cautious about choosing words so as not to offend Trump, and possibly suffering reprisals when he was elected, Carney, adopted a direct confrontation conduct, openly speaking against the plans of the president of the United States and appealing to elements of Canadian national pride. Liberals who for a long time moved away from national symbols, seeking a more multicultural and globalized agenda, began to make rallies full of red and white flags with the sucer sheet.
Liberals grew in the research and endorsed the preference with the results, making more than 43% of the votes, while conservatives, despite growth, were parked by 41%. For Poilievre, the night was even bitter, noting that he lost the reelection of his chair and will probably not appear in Parliament in the next legislature. Donald Trump even believing and preaching everything that is opposite to the Canadian liberal agenda, it was the fuel that boosted them to overcome conservatives.
Despite the joy of an unlikely and historical victory, the life of Prime Minister Carry will not be easy, as he has inherited serious economic problems of his predecessor and will not be able to count on a fraternal dialogue with his main commercial partner across the border. Trump’s declared trade war on all nations has not spared the allies and at this time of media disputes between Americans and Canadians, the Republican will use all his economic tools to make Carnery show that his government will be beyond a well-made campaign.
