Mark R. Cristino / EPA
By launching his trade war, Trump thought China would simply retreat and “swallow the tariffs.” But Xi Jinping has an image to defend, not afraid of losing the US market, has several weapons of retaliation – and, unlike Trump, has no limit on mandates. Just wait.
US ports are now starting to see a decline in shipments China programmed as a result of Donald Trump’s 145% rates on Chinese products.
The Port of Los Angeles, the largest gateway to Chinese goods in the US, provides that the shipments scheduled in early May are about 1/3 lower to the same period last year.
The decreasing number of ships that arrive loaded with Chinese imports probably will soon affect the shelves of the American supermarkets.
After warnings from US supermarket directors, Trump replied by saying that negotiations between the US and China were underway.
But the Chinese president Xi Jinping quickly denied Any negotiations were happening, suggesting that it has no intention of retreating from a confrontation with the US.
Being one of the most powerful leaders in the history of the popular republic of China, Xi created a Image of a nationalist icon.
Therefore, if China understands that the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump are a intimidation tactic intended to weaken itretreat a confrontation with the US would seriously impair image and rhetoric of a strong man of Xi.
And this is something that Trump probably did not take into considerationhe writes Chee Meng TanProfessor of Economics at the University of Nottingham, in an article no.
In the rally in which he signaled his own, the US president also suggested that China would simply retreat and “swallow the tariffs” “Something that seems increasingly difficult than happening.”
A few weeks ago, It looked like Washington could punish China’s lack of willingness to negotiate – with more rates.
But it is now quite clear that Donald Trump is willing to make a deal, and is try to bring China back to the table of negotiations, suggesting that US tariffs could decrease substantially. And the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bettingclassified the trade war as “”.
In truth, Xi Jinping is not afraid of losing the American market And it is, says Stephen McDonellcorresponds to the BBC in China.
And although the tariffs seem to be the main weapon of retaliation in the trade war, the China may have more tactics to respond to Trump and attack the US economy. The question is: What can these tactics be?
Agriculture and Energy
To China reduced its dependence on imports US agricultural since the trade war began in the first presidency of Trump.
This It’s bad news for Washingtonsince agriculture is one of the few sectors in the US that really has A GREAT COMMERCIAL SUPERAVIT with China.
125% retaliatory rates will impair the profitability of the sector. But the retaliation of China It’s not the only problem that American farmers have to face.
As the trade war intensifies, China has used bureaucratic obstacles to Restrict the entry of agricultural products from the US in China – as a potential negotiation tool.
For example, China delayed the renewals of export licenses of US pig farmers and refused to renew licenses from bird breeders for “health and safety” reasons. Beijing’s actions seem to be designed to reach the economy particularly In the states that support Trump.
Much of the base of Trump and the Republicans is in the “red states”, such as Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas, All with agricultural communities significant. Focusing on agricultural issues is a tactic that Beijing realizes that they will reach Trump’s voters.
Of the 444 US counties designated by the US Department of Agriculture as dependents of agriculture, 77.7% voted Trump during the 2024 presidential elections.
Like this, any difficulty faced by the agricultural sector Due to Trump’s own actions You will probably make you lose your support of an important political base. And with the interchange elections in 2026, Trump has to be careful when antagonizing Beijing.
Another support base that Beijing can try to weaken is the one involved in the fossil fuels. In the past, the US was one of the main natural gas suppliers for China.
China does not matter natural gas from the USA since the beginning of February 2025 and has sought its natural gas in AustraliaIndonesia and Brunei. As the trade war continues, it is unlikely that the US will be able to sell its natural gas soon, and this will have a impact on the energy industry – One of Trump’s main political support bases.
Mineral restriction
Another huge problem that the US faces derives from the restriction of China to export of critical minerals. These include seven rare land minerals, notably Samarium, Gadolinium, Terbian, Disciplot, Lutecio, Scandio and Itrio. Although these are used in the clean energy and automobile sectors, the biggest concern would come from US defense sector.
These critical minerals are used in the manufacture of fighters, submarines, missiles and radar systems. THE China has an effective monopoly About the extraction and processing of rare lands, while the US lacks such capabilities.
This means that export restrictions of China will probably affect the American Defense Industrywhile Beijing quickly expands its military ammunition and technology.
The White House probably predicted that there would be restrictions on the export of critical minerals from China. After all, Beijing had banned the export of critical minerals to Japan in 2010 Due to a fishing disputeand has stopped exporting “double use” metals that can be used to produce civil and military technology such as Galio, Germanium and tungsten.
What’s next?
In recent years, China has been trying to overcome one, mainly fueled by a real estate crisis. Trump probably expected China to give in pressure and be crawled to the negotiating table.
After all, the Chinese Communist Party You need to recover your economy Quickly: the establishment There is a long time depends on ensure prosperity economic of the country to legitimize its government over China.
But at this moment, The Battle of Retaliations continues. On 11 April, US tariffs over China reached the peak of 145%while Chinese US products have reached an unprecedented level of 125%.
China can go even further, and Sell US Treasury titles – Increasing interest rates and the cost of US loans.
But, unlike Trump, Xi Jinping usually plays in the long run. After all, Trump’s term as president ends in less than four yearswhile the Chinese president has no mandate limits.
All that Xi Jinping has to do is have patience, wait for a Friest US President – And have tea while waiting.
