New information from the secret services analyzed by US and Western countries suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have changed his immediate focus on the Ukraine War for short -term goals: to consolidate control over territories that his troops have already achieved and boost the Russian economy in difficulties, several sources familiar with the subject to CNN.
This represents an evolution compared to recent US and West intelligence evaluations, which indicated that Putin considered the situation of war favorable, believing that he had the impetus and human resources needed to maintain a prolonged conflict against a weakened Ukraine and eventually conquer the entire country.
The perception that Putin may have changed his way of thinking has influenced the belief of US President Donald Trump and his negotiators that the Russian leader may be more willing to consider a possible peace agreement than in the past, two US sources told CNN.
However, US talls remain skeptical about Putin and its repeated statements, made in ongoing conversations, that it wants a peace agreement-even when what is being proposed by the US is extremely generous to Russia, giving it most of the territory achieved. There is also a widespread belief that even if Russia accepts a version of the agreement currently on the table, you can seek to resume the war and try to win more Ukrainian territory in the long run.
“I think he may be thinking – I don’t want to say more modestly – but to ponder a more reasonable short -term goal,” said a high responsible for Western intelligence.
The pressure exerted by an increasingly aggressive Trump administration, threatening with new sanctions, and the Russian economy in crisis puts Putin in a potentially difficult position. Conversations have also emphasized investment potential between the US and Russia if the war is over, with opportunities that the US has classified as “historic.”
“All of this really depends on what the US is willing to offer it to [Putin] Not only can it claim a victory internally, “he continued the responsible,” but also feeling that he has reached something that justifies a significant break – and then, perhaps, resuming the fight later. “
The official referred to Putin’s repeated allusions to the historical origins of the Russian people, saying that he maintains a “long -term goal” of gaining more from Ukraine – “at least those parts he sees as the cradle of Russian civilization.”
Moscow is willing to “collaborate” with the US and restrict its immediate goals to improve the relationship with Washington, has agreed a high European responsible, but “clearly has not yet abandoned the maximalist goals of war.”
Kremlin expects a better relationship to “deviate attention after a tactical break and then use a combination of military, economic, informative and political tools to achieve the total Putin goals in Ukraine and beyond,” said the official.
Earlier this year, Trump’s current US intelligence officials warned that Ukraine’s control was still Putin’s main priority, along with the survival of his regime, and warned that he was eager to explore any hurry for negotiations from the new administration, according to a source with knowledge of these conversations.
“Putin’s thought has evolved because he thinks he has a friendly American president who doesn’t know what he is doing and is more interested in short -term victories,” said Democratic Deputy Jason Crow, a member of the Chamber of Representatives Intelligence Commission. Putin, he added, “thinks there may be an agreement, and that it simply will not be fulfilled.”
Ukraine calls for security guarantees
During the negotiations started under Trump, Ukrainian leaders have repeatedly appealed to the US and Europe to provide security assistance and guarantees as part of a possible pact – so that even if Ukraine gives rise to some territory, Russia is dissuaded to resume war to conquer more from the country. “The Russian goal is to achieve the recognition of the maximum possible territory and weaken Ukraine as much as possible,” said a high US responsible, who argued that “there is no indication” that Putin can actually achieve the rest of Ukraine when his forces have not been able to advance a long time ago.
Thus, any change in Putin’s thinking stems from this finding and the effort of the Trump administration to make the two parties negotiate the end of the conflict, said the same.
“The calculation of what Putin could achieve most at this moment probably changed, partly because there is a desire to finish the war,” he continued, explaining that “the calculation on the American side has changed [desde a administração Biden]which probably contributes to the change in the calculation of the Russians. ”
Discussions on where the territorial lines could be drawn in the five territories where Russia has the most control, including Crimea, which Putin attached in 2014. Trump said Ukraine will not recover most of the lost territory to Russia.
Last week, US Vice President JD Vance indicated that the US predict any “nearby” truce of the current front lines, with “some territorial exchanges”. “This peace agreement concerns these so -called five territories. But there is much more than that,” Trump counselor said, who has met Putin four times this year, to Fox News after his third meeting. “I think we can be on the brink of something very important for the world.”
CNN had already reported that some European allies are deeply alarmed by sketching as a proposed agreement, as the US could recognize territory illegally taken by Russia.
Trump said the US is ready to recognize Russian sovereignty about Crimea, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated this week that Moscow wants international recognition of all five Ukrainian territories that controls totally or partially – something Kiev has said he will refuse.
Another high-up of the US, sent to Ukraine Keith Kellogg, said on Tuesday that the administration is just waiting for Russia to agree with a ceasefire. “We already have a side [a Ucrânia]Now we need the other, and I think we’re close, ”Kellogg told Fox News.“ We’re in the last 100 meters of the goal. In the army, it’s the 100 most difficult meters. ”
Questions about Putin’s good faith in negotiations
But there has been a lot of doubts between politicians and the intelligence that Putin and his circle are negotiating in good faith, believing that they are just prolonging the talks to continue the military campaign.
Senator Roger Wicker, Republican President of the Senate Armed Forces Commission, echoed this skepticism this week, telling journalists that he is “when treating Putin as the deceiving criminal who is” and recalling Trump that the Russian leader “cannot be allowed to drag the United States with him”—
Trump has constantly insisted that Putin wants peace and has expressed optimism about a possible agreement, but on Saturday he seemed to question the goals of the Russian leader. “Maybe he won’t want to stop war, just deceive me, and have to be treated otherwise – through ‘banking’ or ‘secondary sanctions’?” Trump wrote in a social truth public after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Vatican.
“We understand that Washington intends to achieve a quick success in this process,” replied Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday. “But at the same time, we hope that they understand that the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis is too complex to be achieved overnight. There are many details and many small questions that need to be resolved before reaching an agreement.”
Trump recently referred to Russian attacks on Kiev and other cities that the high in charge of Western intelligence said they were in line with the argument that Putin is not truly committed to ceasefire negotiations to end the war end. “But if placed on the table a proposal too good to refuse, I think they can change the way the way they face the situation,” concluded the official.
