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In a new study, researchers found a causal relationship between seismic activity and solar heat – which drives changes in atmospheric temperature, which in turn may affect factors such as rock properties and groundwater movement.
Seismology has revealed many of the basic principles on earthquakes: tectonic plates move, causing the accumulation of deformation energy, and this energy turns out to be released in the form of an earthquake.
However, with regard to your forecastthere is still much to learn until we can evacuate cities before catastrophes Like Tōhoku’s 9.0 earthquake in 2011, which, in addition to causing a tsunami that led to Fukushima’s nuclear disaster, resulted in over 18,000 deaths.
In recent years, research has focused on a possible correlation between the sun or the moon and seismic activity on earth, and some studies point to tide forces or electromagnetic effects that interact with the crust, core and mantle of the planet.
In 2022, the computer scientist Matheus Junqueira Saldanha and colleagues from the University of Tsukuba, Japan, First discovered a connection between solar and seismic activity.
First study, the researchers related to solar activityparticularly the number of solar spots, with the earth’s seismic systemsto establish a causal effect.
In a new one, published in March in the magazine ChaosJunqueira Saldanha and colleagues have now explored the probability that The climate of the landaffected by solar heat, have a important role in these seismic events.
“Solar heat drives changes in atmospheric temperaturewhich in turn can affect things like the properties of rocks and the movement of groundwater, ”says Junqueira Saldanha in one.
“These fluctuations can make rocks more fragile and prone to fracturesfor example – and changes in snow precipitation and melting can alter pressure on the borders of tectonic plates, ”explains the Brazilian geologist.
“Although these factors can not being the main drivers Earthquakes can still play a role that helps predict seismic activity, ”he says.
Using mathematical and computational methods, researchers analyzed earthquake data along with solar activity records and earth surface temperatures.
Among other findings, they observed that when they included the earth’s surface temperatures in their model, The forecast became more accurateespecially for superficial earthquakes.
“This makes sensesince heat and water mainly affect the upper layers of the earth’s crust, ”says Junqueira Saldanha.
The findings suggest that the solar heat transfer to the surface land affects seismic activity, albeit minimallyand incorporating forecasts of solar activity into detailed earth temperature models can help issue earthquake forecasts.
“AND an exciting discoveryand we hope that our study will bring some light on the general panorama of what the earthquakes triggers, ”concludes the geologist
