The data from labor market Worse came in March compared to February results, but analysts point out that the Brazilian economy is still warm despite the rise cycle of interest launched in September last year.
For experts heard by CNNa unemployment rate It must be the last to feel the weight of the rates. The reflexes, however, should begin to appear more intensely from the second half of this year.
While the unemployment determined by the National Research for Continuous Household Sample (Continuous Pnad), the general registration of employees and unemployed (Caged) Opening of 71 thousand jobs in the month,.
However, Bradesco’s Department of Research and Economic Studies sought to clarify that “even if they cooled in March, the labor market data continue to indicate that the economic activity had expressive growth in the first trimester ”.
The heating scenario in the economy is despite the high level of interest rates in the country. In March,.
Interest is the main mechanism by which the BC seeks to control inflation in the country. By raising Selic ,. It rises the cost of credit, to take loans, and consequently the demand is reduced, thus lowering prices.
What economists heard by CNN They explain that the reflexes of the economic scenario – whether it is slow or accelerated – are felt last in the job market.
This is because companies tend to “hold back the jolt” as much as possible, as hiring and layoffs are costly.
“In general, when a slowdown begins, companies tend, especially in industry, to maintain the workforce as long as possible because they have a lot of scarcity of qualified labor,” explains Ulisses Ruiz de Gamboa, economist at the São Paulo Commercial Association (ACSP).
“We will still observe a net generation of jobs for a while even when the economy slows down and, therefore, unemployment will not be so immediately affected,” he points out.
Guilherme Gaburo, chief economist at Wave Capital, points out that the data released last Wednesday (30) still reflect the dynamism that has been observed in the country.
He ponders that the effect of BC’s monetary policy is expected to reach the job market around the second half of this year.
“Cooling evidence”
“The labor market maintains evidence of cooling […]. Over the last readings, we have noticed the expansion of the slowdown that had been seen incipiently in the Brazilian economy earlier, ”says André Valério, Inter Macroeconomic Research Coordinator, in a statement after the disclosures.
“With a clearer standard of cooling, the next data will be important to understand whether the moderation course in the activity will be characteristic of a soft landing or not, remembering that the recent monetary squeeze of the BC should still be felt by several quarters ahead,” he concludes.
Although the conclusion is that the activity of the labor market follows above historical standards, the expectation of economic agents was by much more expressive highs.
In reading Caged, for example, the downtown was expected even because of February it was a record month ,.
The market expected, however, a result of around 200 thousand vacancies. In the case of Inter, the bet was for 240 thousand new vacancies.
“The economy is slowing down? The answer is yes, but slowly. It has the word ‘looks’ still in the middle of it, it is too early to say,” says Luiz Fernando Figueiredo, chairman of Jive Mauá’s board of directors and former BC monetary policy director.
Figueiredo reinforces the fact that the labor market responds in a “backward” way to the economic scenario, but points out that these disclosures help to compose a series of data that have shown this, albeit slow, the economy.
In their latest interest decisions, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) BC had been highlighting, on the one hand ,.
On the other, he started to point to the potential.
However, it should not influence Copom’s next interest decision to be taken on Wednesday (7).
“As it is still in a process of high interest rates, it has to see a lot of data to build the scenario. All data matters, and this is the most late, not a watershed,” says the former BC director.
He beats the hammer that the “watershed” for Copom would be a much stronger slowdown in the economy and the inflation data is very benign, which is not the case at the moment.
Although the “inflation preview”, the IPCA-15, accumulated in 12 months the indicator follows above 5%, bursting the ceiling of 4.5% of the.
Market expectations for high prices also follow high ,.
Still, the market sees Selic’s high cycle near the end, despite the gradual and incipient data.
“The moment is what they call ‘fine tuning’, at the end of the process, there should be no more than two highs. This is because the external environment requires caution, and when it requires, it goes calmly. There is a lot of uncertainty, it is a moment of tranquility, to be calm. Let’s see what will happen,” concludes Figueiredo.
