The announcement of the President of the Republic, made at dinner with deputies on the 23rd, sounded to congressmen as an attempt to remove the feeling of an early end of the era (PT), but the predictions in their support base remain negative.
The five center and right -wing parties that make up their coalition –, and – are constant sources of instability, do not ensure support for the petista’s possible attempt to try a fourth term and, more than that, are enthusiastic about the possible presidential candidacy of the governor of São Paulo (Republicans).
A Sheet Heard congressmen and leaders of the five subtitles, which add up to almost half the size of the House —240 deputies.
A situation symbolizes the degree of difficulties :.
In 2024,, comparing the force demonstrated by each one and privileging those who commit to close ranks in the PT campaign in October 2026.
After six months, only pieces of the PT itself were exchanged, in addition to two who are not related to the accommodation of the base:, and Juscelino Filho (communications), from União Brasil, by.
The latter was still in the midst of an additional bell. The leader of the House bench, Pedro Lucas Fernandes (MA), was chosen by the president of the Senate, David Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), met with the government, received the invitation, accepted and was announced by Minister Gleisi Hoffmann, responsible for the political articulation of the Planalto Palace.
Days later, a symptom, moreover, which to a greater or lesser extent is in all four alliance parties.
Even for some of the closest to the Planalto there is the assessment that ministerial reform has not come out yet because there is no prospect of good results for the government.
The five subtitles have 11 ministries, but no leader, leader or deputy heard by Sheet ensured adherence to Lula’s possible candidacy.
As worrying as the government is the fact, also disseminated among these subtitles, that a possible Tarcisio candidacy would have the ability to unite political forces outside the left.
What is openly said by PSD President Gilberto Kassab, a symbolic figure of this “unfaithful base”, as he runs subtitles with three ministries while being secretary and enthusiast of the governor of Sao Paulo.
Despite the apparent paradox, deputies say they do not expect relevant scrambles on the government board in the near future.
First, Lula’s five uncomfortable allies have a large history – some more than others – of physiologism, and it is unreasonable to assume that they would abandon about a guaranteed year of access to the federal machine.
Second, the PT does not have strength in the National Congress to dispense with these alliances, even if indigestion.
The deadline for more skills compared to 2026 is in October, they say some year before the election – or the first half of next year, others say.
There are also many variables.
Among them: Will Tarcisio apply for the presidency or try to reelection in Sao Paulo? Will Jair Bolsonaro () be able to recover eligibility? If not, will you support or press Tarcisio to launch yourself? Or will you choose someone from their own family, like the children Flávio and Eduardo? The economy, including food inflation, will be at the same level, will it get worse or improve? Lula’s popularity will recover?
Will the president, who will be to turn 81 in the election, even try a fourth term?
Despite being classified as “very candidate” in April, two months earlier. “I’m 79 years old, I can’t lie to anyone even. If I have 100% health, as I am today…”
Of the five subtitles, one of the most emblematic is União Brasil, the one in Communications.
The party, which has three ministries, is the result of the merger in 2022 of DEM and PSL. The first is the former PFL, which originates from the Military Dictatorship Support Party and which for 40 years was, alongside the PSDB, the main opponent of the PT and the left. The PSL was a Nanico party that only grew due to Bolsonaro’s affiliation in 2018, currently Lula’s main electoral antipoda.
The acronym houses at least three wings today. The one led by David Alcolumbre, more physiological and close to Planalto, that of bolsonarism enthusiasts and that of former historical demists, who advocate an independent performance of Lulism and Bolsonarism.
This last group is part of, for example, Governor Ronaldo Caiado (GO), pre-candidate for the Planalto Palace, but which has insufficient support in the party itself.
Last week, the subtitle announced a federation – alliance for the next four years – with the PP ,.
PSD and MDB, also with three ministries each, have a less unstable acting and are pointed out by petistas as more open acronyms for an electoral composition, but even in them there are many obstacles, see Kassab’s movements and statements.
The MDB is also aligned with Tarcisio in Sao Paulo and although it has important paintings very close to Lula – as Governor Helder Barbalho (PA) and Senator Renan Calheiros (AL) – houses a significant opposition wing in the South and Southeast, and was the party that, not forgetting the PT, led Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment in 2016.
The PP controls the sports portfolio and Caixa Econômica Federal, which became a fiefdom from former mayor Arthur Lira. Nevertheless, he is chaired by Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), one of Lula’s leading critics. Behind the scenes, party members say they consider very little what they control in view of the size of the PP in Congress.
Republicans, besides being the party of Tarcisio, is linked to the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God, an important focus of antipetism. Like the other parties, it has more sympathizers to Lula in the Northeast and houses a strong opposition among Southern and Southeast parliamentarians.
