Vatican Media
Pope Francis with Jean-Marc Hazelnut
Already the bets put Pietro Parolin as successor of Francisco. Hardly tolentine of Mendonça will be chosen.
The choice of Pope Francis successor It’s near. THE Conclave It starts on Wednesday, May 7th and will be up to the 133 cardinal voters, under 80 years old, the responsibility of choosing Francisco’s successor.
Every day will be made four votes and the future Pope should have at least two thirds of the bulletins counted.
An analysis of Votes scenarios in ISCTE’s Medialab Conclave points out the Marseille Cardinal at the head of a restricted group to succeed Pope Francis, with the Portuguese Tolentino de Mendonça to be also included.
According to the ISCTE structure prospective report to which Lusa had today accessed, the authors establish three prospective scenarios in which votes can align and there are three names that are indicated in two of these grills: the cardinals Jean-Marc Aveline (Marseille), Matteo Maria Zuppi (Bologna) and Pietro Parolin (Secretary of State).
Of these three, “by introducing a strategic voting simulation with the candidates present in the three scenarios and a strategic increase for surprise candidates, the prospective result was the found to Election of Jean-Marc Aveline”, Which is presented as the candidate of proximity and dialogue.
The authors, Gustavo Cardoso and Carlos Picassinos, define three scenarios, that will define the voters ‘voters’ voting priorities, “continuity”, “surprise” and what they designate as “strength of the weak”, a combination of analysis to “alignment with the Church’s emerging priorities”, “representation of peripheries”, an “unexpected influence or on the rise”, “leadership in crisis or cultural transition” and “dialogue capacity and reformists and dialogue and dialogue. conservatives ”.
And it is in this category of “power of the weak” that the authors put Portuguese Tolentino de Mendonçathe mayor of the dicker for culture and education, along with Jean-Marc Aveline and Matteo Maria Zuppi.
The analysis combines “qualitative criteria and simulated data of the conclave to identify plausible paths to the results of the papal election,” seeking to “capture the complexity of a process shaped by theological expectations, global church dynamics and faction realignments within the College of Cardinals.”
In the scenario of “continuity” with the previous papacy of Francisco, the authors put Matteo Maria Zuppi, Pietro Parolin and the Philippine Luís António Tagle, current mayor of Dicastery for Evangelization.
The “Surprise” scenario includes Jean-Marc Aveline, Pietro Parolin, and Fridolin Ambongongo Besungu (President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar).
According to the Medialab Prospective Report, called “Scenarios for the Succession of Pope Francis”, the election of Portuguese Tolentino de Mendonça could only succeed in a scenario of “Break”, where “they would have to occur a set of actions and events, both directly managing for itself and its potential supporters, as autonomous of its decision.”
Therefore, “a potential victory of Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça would need a reconfiguration of his image before his peers, from poet to prophet, as a prophetic voice for a wounded world, a pope who understood the soul of humanity in crisis and not just from church institutions,” says the authors.
In addition, “Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça would also need to form pre-contest strategic alliances by joining various blocks,” in particular “moderate curials that do not intend to ruptures, the global southern cardinals that value the Lusophone perspective and the Europeans who appreciate their intelligence and absence of radicalism.”
And then, “in the external dimension of the ‘Papabili’ control would have to occur next month an international crisis involving religion and culture, as well as a set of institutional scandals or impasses in the Curia” and in the electoral process, “there would be a decisive turning point in expectations in the face of votes in votes in Matteo Zuppi and Jean-Marc Aveline”.
Only then would it be possible that “a group of Latin American cardinals leveraged tolentine as a Silent unifying ”, Vaticin the authors, analyzing the profiles of voters.
“For a potential election, Cardinal Tolentino de Mendonça would need about 20 to 25 votes from a Lusophone and Curial Bloc, along with 10 to 15 votes of Latin American cardinals tired of polarization, plus 10 votes from equidistant Europe and, finally, the support of Africa and Asia’s cardinals supporting a candidate who listens and has a global profile,” he can read in the report.
Faced with these difficulties, the authors admit that, “although nothing is impossible, the election of a Portuguese cardinal as the next Pope appears to be particularly difficult and unlikely at the date of this report ”.
However, “from the moment you enter the conclave room and it begins all previous considerations can be dismantled”They write.
Bets have another favorite
The Secretary of State of Francisco, Pietro Parolin, and the highlighted favorite in most scholarships Online bets to be the new pope elected in the conclave of cardinals.
In an appointment for the main betting bags, aggregated on the Odddschecker.com platform, Parolin remains highlighted in the 16 online houses that allow you to bet on the future Pope, which shows the strength of the cardinal born in Rome and that was Secretary of State of Francisco for over 10 years and has been considered the most consensual in its succession.
The creation of cardinals of various nationalities – the consistory has a record of names – and the greatest diversity of formation of the chosen creates one of the most unpredictable conclaves in the latest history of the Catholic Church.
Parolin is one of the few cardinals who know the entire nominees of Francisco, due to his role in Vatican diplomacy, has had approaches of continuity in relation to the Argentine Pope on the fractured topics and has as weak points the lack of administrative experience – never a parish priest or diocesan bishop – and the agreement entered into with China to recognize the Catholic hierarchy in that country.
Then Parolin, in almost all betting houses, follows Filipino Luis Antonio Taglepro-mayor of the dicker for evangelization, one of the most important ministries of the Roman Curia, known to be progressive on a continent that has a more conservative church.
With pastoral and diocesan management experience, Tagle is the favorite of much of those who defend the peripheries and has a more informal personal style, very close to Francisco.
From these two, the names at Odddschecker.com are already more varied, with light highlight for the ghana Peter Turkson, Appointed by John Paul II and former President of the Pontifical Council Justice and Peace, who was already one of the rising names during Bergoglio’s election in 2012, and the Italian Matteo Zuppi, Cardinal of Bologna, president of the Italian Episcopal Conference and considered the most progressive among the strongest names of the conclave.
The Italian follows Pierbatista pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, the Hungarian Peter Erdo and the Guinean Robert Sarah, welcomed by some less progressive sectors.
The Maltese Mario grind (Current Secretary of the Bishops Synod), the French Jean-Marc Aveline (Archbishop of Marseille and leader in ISCTE Analysis) and Congolese Fridolin besungu (President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar) close the ‘top-ten’ of favorites, with the first two to be very linked to the internal dialogue process started by Francis.
Portuguese Tolentino de Mendonçamayor of the dickestory for education and culture, appears on the oddschecker.com list, occupying 25th place, with those ranging from 1 to 25 at PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, Starr Sports or Coral, from 1 to 50 at Unibet, Betvictor, Betmgm or Livescore.
On the Polymarket platform, another major betting aggregator, tolentino de Mendonça is better classified, occupying the eighth place, With two percent hypotheses of being the new Pope, a list led by Parolin (27%), Tagle (19%), Turkson (13%) and Zuppi (12%).
To win a Euro with Parolin you need to bet 28 cents. Already in the case of Tolentino de Mendonça, just bet 1.8 cents to earn the same amount, if the religious Madeiranse is elected Pope.
In this platform, there are still those who bet on how Conclave will not reach agreement In choosing a Pope in 2025, with bets in the order of 0.4 cents to obtain a euro in this unlikely scenario.
