Within a few hours, Donald Trump went on to greet America’s new “golden age” to warn her parents that her children would have less toys – and that they would be more expensive. The president’s dizzying change exemplified the enthusiasm around his promise to “make America rich again” and the pain it can imply there.
The pessimism note left by Trump at a cabinet meeting was a rare admission that his trade war with China will result in fewer goods at higher prices – and a real dose on a day when reality has often threatened to pierce the White House bubble.
This happened on Wednesday, when the US President tried to dismiss bad omens after the disclosure of official data showing that the economy contracted 0.3% in the first trimester-the first major break under the impact of Trump on US growth.
The Department of Commerce report does not mean that the country is immediately diving in a crisis. Some of the underlying numbers have been more encouraging than GDP fall, and reports like this are often reviewed as more data is processed. And while the American economy has been extraordinarily resilient, it is normal to see growth cycles and decline in a capitalist nation. The report is more important for its political and symbolic effect than by the momentary portrait of an slowdown economy. Trump cannot afford to allow alarm signals to become conventional wisdom.
To begin with, the data came to ruin an offensive of self -eloys of the White House that presented the first 100 days of Trump as the largest explosion of presidential action ever. And pointed to a growing political vulnerability. Although much of Trump’s support from his hard border policies, the idea that he is a business master who knows how to guide the economy is fundamental to his “mystery.” If this image is destroyed, its political base weakens.
Secondly, the GDP report fueled the perception that difficult economic days are on the way – and that this is just the beginning. Trump cannot allow this impression gain strength. Apart from the impact on his personal image, a climate of panic among Republican legislators could shake the already fragile unit of the Republican majority in the House – which Trump needs to approve his “big and beautiful” fiscal and budgetary plans.
Most importantly, in signs that consumers are already retracting, evidence of difficult times can become a self-realizable prophecy. History shows that a country can recession just by believing that this will happen.
The world is also observing. If Trump’s approval rates continue to fall, the impression of political weakness may be imposed, which will weaken their negotiation position when trying to complete commercial agreements with dozens of countries seeking to avoid their tariffs. If foreign leaders think he is desperate, why would they have good proposals?
United States President Donald Trump, center left, during a White House cabinet meeting in Washington (Associated Press)
The usual excuse: it’s all Biden’s fault
As usual, Trump’s reaction says it all. Following the release of the GDP report, Trump posted an alarmist message on Truth Social: “This is Biden’s scholarship market, not Trump.” He added, “This will take time, and it has nothing to do with tariffs.” Throughout the day, the president attacked his predecessor to blame economic numbers. He later pointed to the future data: “This is Biden, and it can even be said that the next quarter is also his, because these things do not happen overnight.”
All administrations blame the predecessor for bad economic news – it is common practice in politics. And it is true that it takes time until an administration sets its economic policies and seeing results. Trump is undoubtedly responding to a real problem – the destruction of many industrialized communities in the US as a result of globalization.
But his claim that disappointing economic indicators are the fault of his predecessor would be more credible if he himself had not started the more disruptive attack on the global economic and commercial system since World War II – with little preparation, dubious metrics and habitual chaos.
On the day Trump performed in the White House Rose Garden with a poster showing the fares of each country, he took control of the economy. Many of the shocks and uncertainties that today affect investors and consumers can be directly linked to this “Liberation Day.”
Millions of Americans, however, have already seen the impact on their 401 (K) pension plans. These have been especially worrying months for those who have just renovated or plan to do so soon. Plan 401 (K) is a corporate reform plan that allows the taxpayer to make annual contributions to a specific limit and invest this money for his later years after the end of his work activity.
And one of the main reasons why Trump won the 2024 elections was because voters thought he had more credible solutions to lower the cost of living, such as food prices. Despite the president’s attempts to distort reality, little has done little to mitigate these costs – which have a great impact on the lives of those who, unlike most members of his government, are not millionaires or billionaires.
Public perception has also been shaped by an avalanche of evidence that the economy is getting worse. “These were probably the first 100 most unsuccessful days of any economic presidency in the last century,” says Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary, to CNN. “We saw the scholarship fall like never before. We saw the dollar devalue more than ever. We saw unemployment forecasts rise. Inflation forecasts climb. The hypotheses of recession rise. We saw consumer confidence collapse. We saw companies remove all previous projections of profits.”
The main figures of the Administration rejected this negative diagnosis. “This was the best ‘negative value’ of GDP I’ve ever seen in my life. It should be viewed as a very positive news to the US,” Trump’s commercial advisor Peter Navarro told journalists.
Trump, in turn, claimed the merit of an increase in the investment referred to in the report – which raises the question of why this positive indicator is attributed to him, while the negative numbers are Biden’s fault.
Other officials claimed that the numbers of the trade department were influenced by a sudden vacancy of imports that distorted growth calculations. They say this gave a false reading of the health of the economy. But this peak imports was due to the fact that companies are accumulating products for fear that Trump rates block trade. That is, it is more an indicator of future problems than of current strength.
Donald Trump speaking during the “Investing in America” conference in Washington on April 30, 2025 (Associated Press)
The gap between reality and the promises of Trump
The mixture of rhetoric and data released by the administration on Wednesday suggests that the White House faces a growing problem that could deeply shape Trump’s second term. Having launched the US and the world into unknown economic territory -guided by its instinct -Trump’s path to a successful result seems increasingly obscure.
This is why your comment about the cost of toys was so revealing.
The president referred to the possible impact of the confrontation with China – the most important battlefield of the trade war. With Chinese President Xi Jinping still refusing to give in to the 145% of tariffs imposed by Trump, the president has been insisted for days that he and his administration have been in intense conversations with Beijing – although there is no public proof of this.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, accompanied by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, holds a news article about Amazon founder Jeff Bezos during a press conference at the White House press room (Associated Press)
US observers usually don’t believe in the Chinese communist government more than Washington. But the history of advertising and falsehoods of this administration means that today it no longer benefits from doubt.
The president, in describing China as the “largest thief” of US factories and workers, boasted that his action led ships loaded with goods to the US to turn behind. And curiously painted all this as something positive.
“You know, someone said,” Oh, the shelves will be empty, “Trump said. “Well, maybe the kids get two dolls instead of 30, they realize? And maybe these two dolls cost a few more dollars than they would normally cost.” The comment may have been made with lightness, but was revealing – and points to an imminent trap for the president.
It is legitimate to argue that the US became too dependent on cheap consumer goods from China, and that, for the sake of the long -term economy, it would be preferable to have a more balanced economy. But it is a politically strange argument coming from a billionaire president, who circulates between CEOs rich and members of his Mar-lago club, telling parents workers that they will have to buy fewer toys for their children. And this goes far beyond the dolls.
Although the dependence on Chinese products has impaired the American national industry, it also raised millions’ life patterns. Almost everyone has benefited from the cheaper school supplies and electronic devices, such as televisions. Each father knows how children grow up quickly – and most of the shoes come from China. If this suddenly disappears, the pain will be real.
This was one of the few times he was honest with Americans about the likely cost of his confrontation with Beijing. But the White House continues to try to ward off reality. On Tuesday, press secretary Karoline Leavitt accused Amazon of a “hostile and political” act after a (then denied) news that the company planned to identify the actual costs of tariffs on its websites.
And much of Trump’s Wednesday day was busy with events where government members and friendly entrepreneurs praised him torn. “President, their first 100 days have surpassed any other in the history of the American presidency. I’ve never seen anything like that. Thank you,” said Attorney General Pam Bondi during the flattery show at the cabinet meeting.
It was not the first time, recently, that the White House communication seemed more oriented to elevate the president’s morale than the nation. Some of these episodes are comic. But they suggest that a president who has put the economy and the world in a dangerous course is not receiving honest advice on the consequences.
Thus, the gap between reality and the world of Trump will continue to grow – and will weaken statements like the one he did on Tuesday night in Michigan: “Our golden age is just starting.”
