Yuri kochetkov/epa
Last year was the deadliest for Russian forces since the beginning of the war in Ukraine: at least 45,287 people were killed.
The number is almost three times higher than the first year of the invasion and significantly exceeds the 2023 losses, when the longest and longer battle of war was taking place in.
At the beginning of the war, losses occurred in vacancies during battles in strategic locations, but in 2024 there was an increase, month after month, in the number of dead, as the front line slowly advanced, which allowed the BBC to conclude that Russia has lost at least 27 lives for each kilometer of captured Ukrainian territory.
The BBC Russian service, in collaboration with the Mediazonian Independent Communication body and a team of volunteers, processed open source data from cemeteries, military memorials and Russian obituaries. So far, the names of 106,745 Dead Russian Soldiers during the large -scale invasion of Ukraine.
The real number is, of course, much higher. Military experts estimate that our data can cover between 45% and 65% of deathswhich would mean a total of 164,223 to 237,211 killed.
O deadly day For the Russian forces last year was February 20, 2024. In total, 201 Russian soldiers died that day, according to BBC data.
A few hours after the attack, against a training camp, then Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Vladimir Putin to give him news about military success on the front line. There was no mention of the attack on the training field, nor any reference to the Ministry of Defense in their daily reports.
The BBC gave priority to the exact death dates of the soldiers. When this was not possible, it used the date of the funeral or the date the death was registered.
In the first two years of the war, 2022 and 2023, Russian losses followed a undulating standard: Intense combat with many casualties alternated with periods of relative calm.
In 2023, for example, most of the casualties occurred between January and March, when the Russian forces tried to capture the cities of Vuhledar and Bakhmut at Donetsk Oblast.
In the first year of the large -scale invasion, according to our calculations, Russia lost at least 17,890 soldiers – this number does not include the losses of the two Russian substitute forces in eastern Ukraine. The following year, this number rose to 37,633.
In 2024, there was no period that showed a significant reduction in the casualties. The bloody and Robotyne battles were followed by intense attacks on Pokrovsk and Toretsk. In August 2024, Russian recruits were killed when the Ukrainian forces the border in the region of. Only between 6 and 13 August, it is estimated that 1,226 Russian soldiers died.
However, the heavier global losses occurred during a slow advance of Russian forces in east between September and November 2024according to the main US military analyst, Michael Kofman.
“The tactics emphasized repeated attacks with dispersed assault groups, using small teams Infantry, which increased the total number of casualties compared to the terrain gained, ”he explained.
After nearly two years of intense combat, Russian forces took the Vuhledar Logistics Center in Donetsk on October 1, 2024. According to estimates from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), between September and November 2024, Russian forces captured 2,356 square kilometers of Ukraine.
Even so, the Ukrainian forces on the front did not collapse. The cost of this advance was at least 11,678 deaths of Russian military.
In total, in 2024, according to ISW, Russia captured 4,168 square kilometers of territory. This means that for every square kilometer captured, 27 Russian soldiers were killed – not to mention the injured.
How losses are changing recruitment
Russia has found ways to replenish its strength. “Russian recruitment also increased in the second half of 2024 and exceeded the Russian casualties, allowing Moscow to form new units,” says Michael Kofman.
Unique payments to soldiers who sign new contracts have been increased in three Russian regions. Voluntary soldiers’ combat wages are between five and seven times higher than the average salary in most regions.
BBC has classified as volunteer Those who enlisted to avoid criminal proceedings, permitted by law in 2024. Volunteers became the category of victims with greater growth in our calculations, representing a quarter of the identified victims.
Between 2023 and 2024, thousands of volunteers who signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense were sent to the front line only 10 to 14 days later. This minimum formation will have drastically reduced their survival hypothesesthe experts say.
A Russian republic, BASCORTOSTOrecorded the largest number of casualties, with 4,836 confirmed deaths. Most came from rural areas and 38% went to combat without prior military experience.
The single payment for the signing of a contract with the Russian Army in UFA is 34 times higher than the region’s average salary, which is 67,575 rubles (about 4,750 reais).
Calculation of death -based deaths will always be incomplete, as the bodies of a significant number of dead soldiers in recent months can still be on the battlefield, and their recovery is a risk for service soldiers.
The actual number of killed by Russian forces significantly increases if we include those who fought against Ukraine as part of the self -proclaimed popular republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
An assessment of obituaries and reporting reports for missing combatants suggests that between 21,000 and 23,500 people may have been killed until September 2024. This would increase the total number of dead to between 185,000 and 260,700 military.
