Popular support for him, his mayor whose arrest triggered the largest demonstrations that have been made for a decade in, has increased further above that of the president after being arrested and imprisoned in March, they show.
Two investigations, released in recent days, show that Imoglou’s imprisonment on March 19 has also reinforced the view that he is Erdogan’s main opponent in any future presidential election, even if he is behind the prison irons.
The mayor was imprisoned on March 23 by charges of corruption, which he denies. Opposition and European leaders described his imprisonment politically and undemocratic, which caused nationwide protests.
Erdogan’s government rejects criticism and claims that the judiciary is independent.
What do polls show
It is not clear when Imamoglou, who has served as a mayor for two terms, will not be tried, nor whether he will be released. Investigations are ongoing after more than 100 other officials in Turkey’s largest city were arrested with various charges.
Investigations conducted in April by Metropoll and Konda companies show that Imamoglu would comfortably preceded Erdogan in a hypothetical electoral duel – although elections will not be held before 2028.
Investigations also show that, after the arrest of the mayor nearly two months ago, Turkish voters have pointed out even more between the AKP, Erdogan’s party, and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) of Imoglou, which is the largest opposition.
“If the elections were held today, and Imamoglu and Erdogan were in the second round of vote, Imamoglu would win by a difference of seven percentage points,” says Ozer Senchar, leader of Metropoll research, which estimates his support of 46%.
Metropoll found that, after March, support for both the CHP and the AKP increased by about five percentage points, to 34% and 33% respectively, largely because they chose camp voters who were indecisive until then.
Erdogan, who was last elected in 2023, cannot be a candidate under the law, unless early elections are announced and supported by three -fifths of Parliament, which means that he will need support beyond his ruling Conservative Coalition.
A Public Declaration of the CHP on Imamoglou’s release and holding early elections has exceeded 13 million signatures, according to Milliyet. The party did not respond when he was asked to update that number.
Konda’s poll showed that support for Imamoglou increased in April well above 40%, more than last month, and would be preceded by Erdogan in a hypothetical electoral duel, according to Aidin Erdemis.
Erdogan came first when he was asked by respondents to choose from a wider list of nine potential candidates, Konda said.
However, the number of undecided voters declined significantly in April compared to March, with most supporting one of the two men, indicating that the mayor’s imprisonment has reinforced a “growing polarization” in political affairs, Erdem said.
The results of Konda and Metropoll’s surveys have not been widely publicized, beyond those who had ordered the investigations. Some previous polls had shown that support for Imamoglou was moving to similar high levels, including before his decisive last year’s victory in the municipal elections.
The day before Imoglou was arrested, authorities canceled his university degree, which is required by law to be a candidate for the presidency.
On the day he was imprisoned, the CHP elected him his official candidate for the presidency.
The head of another poll company, Mehmet Ali Kulat of Mak, said that the future success of Imamoglou and CHP would depend to a large extent on whether other opposition parties, especially the pro -Kurdish DEM that had previously supported the CHP.
