Vatican City – There are so many unknown faces that cardinals are using badges. The Vatican guest house, intended for visitors who come to choose the next Pope, is overcrowded. Daily Vatican meetings have acquired airs of theological speed sessions.
“The cardinals don’t know each other so well,” said Sweden’s Cardinal Anders Arborelius, who spent the last few days in a Vatican -crowded classroom, listening to concerns and learning the names of the record number named by Pope Francis who will choose his successor.
Arborelius sat in a section reserved for a small group of newbies from countries that have never had cardinals before. Among them was one from Mali, who, he said, was “missing” after the first day, and another from Laos, which, many days after the meetings began, “did not appear.” He himself said he felt “lost all the time.”
However, he and dozens of other cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel from Wednesday afternoon to vote for the next Pope, under isolation and Michelangelo’s fresh ones in one of the oldest dramas in the world.
All papal elections are unpredictable. But this conclave has so many unknown and political faces, priorities and unusual concerns that may be more troubled than usual.
This occurs at a particularly dangerous moment for a church that Francisco has deeply divided, with progressive factions by pushing more inclusion and changes, while conservatives seek to reverse things, often under the pretext of unity.
Continues after advertising
The first pope in centuries to come from outside Europe, Francis expanded the global reach of the church to better reflect the diversity of faith. The conclave that chose him 12 years ago had 115 cardinals from 48 countries. This conclave should have 133 voting rights (those under 80), representing about 70 countries. The new Pope will need at least 89 votes.
One of the most pressing issues the cardinals will face is to decide whether to move on the way that Francisco has pointed out or bringing the “back home” papacy in Europe.
The initial favorites reflect these tensions. Among them is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, an Italian who was Vatican Secretary of State under Francisco. It is seen as someone who can transit between the moderate and more liberal fields, although apparently considered problematic for conservatives. In the days preceding the Conclave, a Catholic right -wing publication of the United States spread the rumor that he had passed out in the room. The Vatican said it was a lie.
Continues after advertising
Another frequently mentioned candidate is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, of the Philippines, who represents the impulse by a progressive in the expanding domains of the church. And finally, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Italian patriarch of Jerusalem, who, like Francis, is known for its pastoral sensitivity, but is again Italian.
“There are three who everyone knows: Parolin, Tagle and Pizzaballa,” said Arborelius, who is sometimes mentioned as a possible Pope and who considers himself part of a “very special group” of novices.
The newbies
Not everyone is enthusiastic about the acceleration of geographical diversity and the new group in charge of deciding the future of the Roman Catholic Church.
Continues after advertising
Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller of Germany, a conservative who used to head the church office on doctrine before being fired by Francis, remembered a meeting during the Pontificate of Francis, when one of the newbies-“a Cardinal of 25 Catholics on a Southern Sea Island”-entered a subcommittee meeting.
“He said three things,” said Müller. “First, I don’t speak English. Second, I don’t know anything about theology. And third, I didn’t know why they made me Cardinal. Now he’s a Pope’s voter.”
Conservatives complain that Francisco overloaded the school with cardinals, far beyond the 120 usual members. He set aside archbishops of western capital, positions that are sometimes occupied by conservatives, to create a more global college that reflect his pastoral view and his perspective from the bottom to the church.
Continues after advertising
But it is unclear whether all the cardinals Francisco has appointed are in his line of thought. In controversial political issues that are expensive to Western liberals, such as the inclusion of LGBTQ+ Catholics and women, they can be more conservative.
Some allies near Francisco minimized the concern.
“You can find opposition figures in all countries where he has done cardinals,” said Cardinal Michael Czerny, a Canadian progressive and Jesuit who was a counselor near Francis, noting that the Pope had put them aside. “I don’t think he’s choosing people who completely disagree with him.”
The Italians
There is a sensation among some in the room that “now we need an Italian pope,” noted Arborelius, the novice of Sweden. Other cardinals also noted that Italians seem to be suffering from papal abstinence.
“How long haven’t they have a Pope?” Said Cardinal Juan José Omella of Barcelona with a smile.
The answer: 47 years. Forever, in Italian time.
After Adriano VI, a Pope of the Netherlands, died in 1523, the Italians kept a strict control over papal power for 455 years, until John Paul II of Poland emerged from the conclave in 1978. He was succeeded by Benedict XVI from Germany and then by Francisco of Argentina.
The unlikely allies
There is no shortage of potential coalitions.
Voting blocks can form around geography, ideology, language or cultural sensitivities. Or around priorities such as financial transparency or doctrinal issues. They can even form around rivalries or traditional antagonisms.
Some Vatican officers stated that Asian cardinals were considered well organized and cohesive, forming a powerful block that could join the most progressive Americans and South Americans who do not want an Italian pope, for example.
Instead, it is speculated that they could align behind someone like Tagle, from the Philippines.
Conservatives appointed by the previous pontificates are considered a cohesive group, even if they do not have decisive numbers. Some liberal cardinals fear that conservatives seek a force multiplier when looking at Africa.
Africa houses one of the Church’s most growing Catholic populations and some of its most conservative cardinals, many of which are deeply opposed to the inclusion of LGBTQ+Catholics.
Africa’s most frequently cited candidate is Congo’s Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu. He was a favorite of Francis, who appreciated his pastoral pedigree.
But he opposed a change of rule that Francis made, allowing for blessings to same -sex unions. Instead, he has defended other priorities, such as pastoral care for polygamists.
This emphasis does not appeal to European conservatives, and the question is whether they are willing to ignore it to promote other priorities.
Some progressives argue that instead the church should look at the east. Conservatives claim that an tacit progressive prejudice against Africa may be behind the move to Asia.
“Asia!” said Müller. “I think there are hidden prejudices that Africa is not so developed. No one would say that, but deep down, right?”
c.2025 The New York Times Company
