The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), appears as a favorite Franco to reelection in 2026, according to a survey by the Paraná Research Institute released on Tuesday (6).
Tarcisio’s management is approved by 66.8% of Paulistas, and he leads with wide advantage all voting intention scenarios tested for state succession.
In the government assessment, 49.5% classify management as “great” or “good”, 30.2% as “regular” and only 18.4% A “bad” or “terrible”. The index reinforces the governor’s solid performance, which also appears as the most spontaneously remembered by voters for a new term.
In the stimulated first-round simulation, Tarcísio adds 42.1% of voting intentions, twice the runner-up, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), which has 21.1%. Third is federal deputy Erika Hilton (PSOL), with 9.4%, benefited by her recent projection in defending the 4 × 3 working journey.
Other names tested add up less than 6%: Health Minister Alexandre Padilha (PT), with 5.5%; the mayor of Sorocaba, Rodrigo Manga (Republicans), with 4.8%; and the former mayor of Santo André, Paulo Serra (PSDB), with 4%. Businessman Filipe Sabará, also from Republicans, appears with 0.8%. White and null add up to 8.2%, and 4.1% of respondents did not know or did not respond.
Tarcisio has already stated publicly that, but his name circulates hard behind the scenes as an alternative from the right to run for the Presidency of the Republic, against (PL) by 2030. The solidity of its base in Sao Paulo, the country’s largest electoral college, is seen as strategic trunfo by allies.
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The survey listened to 1,700 voters in 85 municipalities from São Paulo between May 1st and 4th. The margin of error is 2.4 percentage points, with confidence level of 95%.
