The doors of the monumental Sistine chapel Built on Sixto IV at the end of the 15th century they will close at 4:30 p.m. on Wednesday, May 7, 2025 so that the 133 voters votes vote to Pope number 267 of the Catholic Church. Vaticanists point to one of the most uncertain in history before. That means that in the socks of ‘papables’ many different names appear depending on the source or the media.
We are also facing the most international conclave, with glitter from 70 countries from the five continents, and although they were mostly chosen by Jorge Mario Bergogliothey are presented as a heterogeneous group that is not known. Eight out of ten cardinals who participate in the conclave were designated by Francisco (108), compared to the 21 appointed by Benedict XVI and the 4 of John Paul II.
In the following table we compare the cardinals who have indicated as ‘daddables’ some of the main media. The names of Pietro Parolin, Matteo Zuppi, Luis Antonio Tagle, Peter Erdo, Jean-Marc Aveline, Peter Turkson y Pierbatte pizzaballa They are some of the ones that are most repeated as favorites.
From data from betting houses Betfair, Polymarket y Kalshithe British media has developed the following average probability of each of the main ‘papable’. In this case, Parolin and Tagle head the forecasts with remarkable advantage over the rest of the candidates.
To be chosen Papa need the support of two thirds of the conclavethat is to say, 89 of the 133 Cardinals that can vote and be elected (those who were less than 80 years of the day Francisco died). On Wednesday afternoon the first vote will take place, and from Thursday there will be four votes every day, two in the morning and two in the afternoon. The fumatas They are scheduled around 12.00 and 7:00 p.m., after each batch of two votes, but they could get ahead if Pope has chosen in the first vote of each shift.
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