has been dedicated to reading about the Catholic faith. On Instagram, he indicated to the public two recent literary discoveries: the biography of St. Josemaría Escrivá, the founder of Opus Dei, and “a look that heals: therapy of spiritual diseases,” written by the posts so successful that the Dom Bosco Center invited the deputy in January to talk about Catholicism.
In common, Opus Dei, Dom Bosco Center and Father Paulo Ricardo, working similar to that of Friar Gilson, have a traditionalist view of the Catholic religion. With his publications, Nikolas waved to sectors of the Church in which pockets, researchers say, became the main political force, despite Pope Francis’ thinking, killed two weeks ago.
In this sense, the choice of the new Pontiff High Pontiff should not impact, according to experts, the growing pockets between Catholics and the result of 2026.
“Bolsonarists like Nikolas understood that they will not lose the vote of evangelicals. They also need to win Catholics,” says Rodrigo Toniol, professor of anthropology at UFRJ (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro).
The rise of Bolsonarism in the Church, says Toniol, could be found by the reaction of sectors of the Brazilian Catholic community to Francisco’s progressive positions, including the welcome of LGBTQia+ people and the defense of sustainable development.
The researcher considers that the tendency to reactionary has always existed among Catholics, as well as the political appropriations of the image of the Supreme Pontiff. It states that groups affecting the former president’s ideas (PL) saw a leftist militant, while progressive movements tried to politically explore his authority. Toniol recalls, however, that Francis, in the ecclesiastical aspect, did not promote reforms in the doctrines of the Church.
In general, Catholics are divided into three groups, which are defined by distinct views compared to Council 2, summoned in the 1960s by Pope John 23 to update the guidelines of the Curia. Progressives accept the Council; Conservatives too, but want to preserve certain values. The traditionalists reject it. Coordinator of the PUC-SP Center of Faith and Culture, Francisco Borba Ribeiro Neto says that pockets captured a behavioral trend of Christians, emerged in the 1990s.
The time remembers the expert, was of transformations in the country, with the modernization of the economy and society, focusing on urban areas. In religious terms, this context shaken the faith of the poorest people.
In parallel, sectors of the church most linked to the left, says Neto, declined, especially the theology of liberation, the ideological background of Catholic organizations that fought against the dictatorship, such as the working Catholic action and the base ecclesial communities. Since then, the social context would undergo deeper changes.
After all, in seven years, the country will have an evangelical majority, according to the projection of demographer José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, retired researcher at the IBGE National School of Statistical Sciences.
“Catholic vote still has weight, but it is not quantitative,” says Borba. “What has weight is the Catholic word.”
In contrast to evangelicals, the very definition of Catholic vote is inaccurate. In the country with more Catholics in the world, this religiosity is beyond democratic and can be claimed by people who were baptized, but never stepped in a church.
“The destination of the Catholic vote will be decided if the current government can respond to three topics: corruption, transparency and family support,” says Borba.
In 2022, the research datafolhas done before the election showed that Lula (PT) had a majority among Catholics. In April, Datafolha pointed out that 53% of this social segment approved Lula, compared to 44% they failed.
Coordinator of PUC-Minas Religion Postgraduate Studies, Rodrigo Coppe Caldeira reinforces it is difficult to define the Catholic vote and bets on a turn to Catholicism in the 2026 elections. “The faithful are going to the right,” says Caldeira. “The church’s pocket portion is making more noise.”
The expert says that traditionalism, identified with the former president’s guidelines, is spread in several Catholic currents.
The main one is charismatic renewal, a movement that emerged in the United States in the 1960s, and soon gained fans here. One of the distinctions of the movement is Pentecostalism that, in practical terms, translates into a more emotional experience of the liturgy, with songs, dances and tears. Among the traditionalist groups, the Priestly Fraternity stand out are Pio 10th and the Personal Apostolic Administration St. John Maria Vianney.
In the Senate, the Catholic Parliamentary Front represents the religious who identify with the right proposals. In this scenario, the CNBB (National Conference of Bishops of Brazil) fits into a cracked church, criticizing capitalists and Marxists, says Vaticanist Filipe Domingues.
He also states that the choice of the next Pope should not influence Brazilian politics, although he recognizes the decline of the left in the church. “In the dictatorship, religion has embraced social movements, but in democracy there is no need for it,” says Domingues. “Many people who were in the church left her.”
