This Wednesday (7), there are meetings of the central banks of the United States and Brazil. The meetings will define the interest rates of each country and will be announced in the Superquarta.
The meetings take place from the perspective of global uncertaintiesespecially with the impacts of tariff war intensified by US President Donald Trump in early April.
In Brazil, the projection is that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) do Banco Central (BC) Raise the current 14.25% per year, but to a lesser extent than seen in the last meetings. The decision should leave after 6:30 pm.
Already in the US, the estimate is that the Federal open market committee (FOMC) Federal Reserve (Fed) Keep the current level of 4.25% to 4.5%. The data will be published at 15h (Brasília time) and the interview of the chief of the Fed, Jerome Powellwill happen at 15:30.
Market sees high of 0.5 points in Selic
In a report, the Goldman Sachs projects a 0.5 percentage point of Selic. The US bank will be aware of the predictions of the basic interest rate for the end of 2025 and 2026, due to Brazilian inflation above 3%, the center of the goal.
Goldman states that inflation, coupled with the uncertainties of external macroeconomics, can leave “the door open” for future movements.
“We hope that Copom will not close the door for a lower residual increase in June, but to refrain from offering a specific guidance for the June meeting (including not stating that the increases ended),” the bank wrote in a report.
Most of the market is betting on a 0.5 point increase, raising interest rates to 14.75% per year, show data from B3. If it is confirmed, Selic will reach the highest level since 2006.
This week and a new elevation of 0.25 at the meeting scheduled for June, throwing interest to 15%.
However, before the end of the year, the BC should start cutting cycle, reducing by 0.25 point and closing 2025 with Selic by 14.75%.
For next year, the expectation is interest at 12.5%.
Financial planner CFP and investment specialist, Jeff Patzlaff, argues that the Brazilian Central Bank tends to adopt a firmer technical posture to support the expectations of the financial market and reinforce its institutional independence.
“Given this context, a new rise – although moderate – would function as a sign of surveillance and commitment to price stability, even in the face of the impact on economic activity,” he says.
In the same vein of “Waiting to SEE”, the CFP financial planner projects that the BC maintains interest rate at 14.75% per year at the June meeting to analyze the effects of interest raising, however, other highs are possible.
“If inflation continues to negatively surprise, as has occurred in service nuclei and food, and the exchange rate is further devaluing, pressing prices and inflation expectations for 2026 to remain disincooked, this would compromise the effectiveness of the current rate,” says Patzlaff.
Fed highlights uncertainties
In the international scenario, the tariff war began by US President Donald Trump does not bring answers of how the Brazilian economy will be affected in the medium term, as well as stirring the expectations of the performance of US activities.
Trump’s Economic Policy Guideline has already been cited by the Fed as one of the challenges in the monetary authority’s work to pursue their objectives of generating employment and control inflation.
In early May, the US president ruled out the idea of dismissing Fed President Jerome Powell, but pressured again for an immediate interest in the argument.
In a report, the consultancy LCA4intelligence states that the contraction of the American GDP was due to the response of the industry and local consumers, which import more for concern for Trump’s tariff war.
“The good behavior of inflation will be challenged in this 2nd quarter by the tariff shock: companies have reported relevant increase in costs, and families are also realizing an increase in cost of living,” wrote LCA4intelligence.
According to the consultancy, the Fed should maintain the basic interest rate at Wednesday (6) meeting, will not possibly signal a reduction in the June meeting and maintain its independence from Donald Trump’s attacks.
