President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva landed in Moscow on Wednesday, 8, as one of the few heads of state in the world with confirmed presence in the celebration of Victory Day, which marks the victory of the Soviet Union about Nazi Germany in World War II. The visit has a symbolic weight in Brazil’s diplomatic relations with Russia and, according to analysts, signals Lula’s approach with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Historically, Putin uses victory day to boost Russian nationalism and project an image of strength to the world. Several heads of state have already participated in the celebration in the past -such as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in 2018 -but since the beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022, participation has become smaller. This year Russia has intensified efforts to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of the war.
According to ESPM International Relations Professor Gunther Rudzit, the presence of heads of state in the celebrations is used by Putin as a demonstration of international support. This became even stronger after the war in Ukraine, when Russia’s relations with the European Union, the United States and Western allies deteriorated.
The main head of state present this year will be China’s leader, Xi Jinping, who increased the bond with Russia after the war began, especially as a commercial partner. After China, Brazil is the country with the strongest economy to confirm presence.
Other guests are the leaders of the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrguistan, Tadjiquistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Others are the leaders of Bosnia, Burkina Faso, Congo, Cuba, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Palestine, Serbia, Slovakia, Venezuela, Vietnam and Zimbabwe.
Robert Fico, the leader of Slovakia, the only country in the European Union to be invited, has not yet confirmed if he will be present. Aleksandar Vucic, the president of Serbia, who seeks to enter the EU, planned to go, but fell ill during a trip to the United States and canceled the trip.
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In the case of Vucic, Brussels even warned that the visit would violate the EU membership criteria and impair the country in the adhesion process.
The expectation of the presence of heads of state led Kremlin’s main foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, to declare that the event will have “large scale.” “Despite the hostile attitude towards Russia by several Western countries, we are very successful a large -scale event,” Russian state press told.
According to Gunther Rudzit, Brazil, in confirming presence, helps Russia build this image. “This is a chance for Russia to demonstrate that it is not isolated in diplomacy. Brazil’s trip for the event this year helps to reinforce this idea,” said the professor of ESPM. In contrast, the gains for Brazil are uncertain.
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Impact for Brazil
For Rudzit, Brazil has no to gain from Lula to Russia. On the contrary, it has to lose: by demonstrating proximity to Putin, the Brazilian sends a negative message to the European Union, which can affect the bloc’s trade agreement with Mercosur. “It is an agreement that has been going on for a long time and that faces opposition in Europe, especially from France. An image of Lula linked to Putin puts it at risk,” he said.
According to the analyst, this risk is present even as the EU seeks to expand commercial warfare between China and the US, which destabilizes relationships. “Putin is an existential threat to Europe as we know today. If they have to pretend trade issues for existential, they will do,” Rudzit said.
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The Teacher of International Relations at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Pedro Brites, disagrees with the idea. According to him, the agreement between the blocks is advanced and Europe should prioritize commercial ties. “The visit can generate some image wear, but I do not believe it goes beyond that at this time when the European Union seeks to diversify ties,” he said.
Brites adds that Lula’s visit happens as the United States, which until then were Ukraine’s main partners in the conflict, resumed dialogues with Russia under the presidency of Donald Trump. “Brazil was more confident of having a more assertive stance [de aproximação com Moscou]”He said.
In contrast, says Pedro Brites, the country can deepen commercial ties with Moscow and exercise protagonism at BRICS, a bloc that presides this year and that has Russia. “Brazil has a chance of protagonism at BRICS more than any other block that is part. So there is a bet on the bloc and strengthening relationships with other BRICS countries is strategic for the country to prove strong in diplomacy,” he added.
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The two analysts agree, however, that Lula’s visit has a null chance of influencing the direction of war – a desire emphasized by the president since returning to the Planalto. Rudzit lists two reasons for this: the country is not seen by one part of the conflict, Ukraine, as an impartial; and is unable to exercise economic or political pressures. Brites adds that the opposite interests of Russia and Ukraine make any mediation difficult.
For Rudzit, the visit also impairs the image of Brazil’s diplomacy as a country linked to neutrality. “A visit from Lula to Russia during a War Chancela all actions of Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 to this day,” he said.
