The special advisor of the Presidency of the Republic, Celso Amorim, evaluates that Ukraine will have to give up the Crimea and discuss the situation of the territories occupied by Donbass Russia, Kherson and Zaporizehzia, as well as abandoning the idea of adhesion in the NATO Military Alliance, to reach a peace agreement with Russia.
Before leaving the Russian capital, this Saturday, the 10th, the main foreign policy advisor of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva shared his evaluation to journalists. The former chancellor stressed that the scenario’s reading is his, not the president, and that he does not make moral judgment of the situation. Amorim indicated a pragmatic view to refer the end of the war and said that it is necessary to work with the “possible peace” of being achieved and that “ideal peace” can never come.
“Some things never unresolved definitively,” said the former chancellor. “The crimea I think there is no doubt that it will pass (to Russia). I am not saying that it is fair, right or wrong. And not to join NATO, but having another kind of protection is part of the European Union. The guarantees will have to be mutual and this is not very simple,” said the former minister.
Lula’s advisor also said that plebiscite can be foreseen in terms of deadlines as five or ten years in the disputed territories.
For Celso Amorim, it is possible to predict that this will be the question in dispute and the scenario will not change, even if the war is extended for another five years, at the cost of thousands human lives. Therefore, the conflict can become “futile” and “sad”.
He had participated in the eve of the conversation between Lula and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meeting took place at the St. Catherine Order Hall at Kremlin. Amorim was at the table and was highlighted by Lula as a “old friend” of Putin. He has a long work history also alongside Russian chancellor Serguei Lavrov.
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Amorim said details were not addressed and that the conversation was more general and focused on bilateral themes.
As Estadão revealed, Lula answered a government request Volodmir Zelenski and asked Putin to accept a 30-day ceasefire in the war. The same appeal was made by the Ukrainian to Chinese Xi Jinping. The petista suggested that Putin prolonged the three -day break he decreed for celebrations of the end of World War II in Moscow. Putin indicated that he would evaluate the case without giving a conclusive response.
Hours later, the Russian leader said he was willing to resume direct peace conversations with Ukraine in Turkey from May 15. He stated that there would be no previous conditions. Kremlin officials said Russia would evaluate the idea of 30-day ceasefire, but has its own position for an agreement.
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American Donald Trump had been leading conversations and came to an understanding of the same deadline with Zelenski, but not with Putin. France’s political leaders, the United Kingdom, Poland and Germany landed in Kiev and promised to increase pressure on Putin to abide by the 30 days of truce.
For the former Brazilian chancellor, Europe is unable to provide lasting support to Ukraine, despite promises, mainly headed by the United Kingdom and France.
At the end of March, a Kiev support conference was headquartered in Paris and President Emmanuel Macron chefred to announce an immediate reinforcement of 2 billion euros. After consultations between leaders, only two countries-France and the United Kingdom-volunteered to send military contingents to stay in Ukraine on the ground as a long-term guarantee, in a new modality, in case of a peace agreement, after security guarantees in case of ceasefire.
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The initial design foresaw about 20,000 men, in a kind of rearguard in certain areas of Ukraine, in support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They would not in principle to the border. But no other European country has volunteered to participate.
Amorim, however, assesses that countries do not have enough resources and would have difficulty with excess social security spending, as well as complex internal issues such as immigration.
“The big responsibility is to Europeans. They are giving the impression that they will give a boundless support, and I do not think this will happen. They have no strength, have internal problems, barely can deal with the issue of immigrants, social security … Do you think France will spend 4% of her GDP on armament? Remember yellow vests?
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He said he would not like to comment on Ukrainian internal policy when asked if such an agreement could be reached with Zelenski in power. He has already said himself willing to resign in exchange for peace and entry into NATO.
“It’s hard to imagine that the Russians will accept this. It’s not a moral matter, but they have always seen a part of East Ukraine as part of Russia and it was the natural path for Hitler and Napoleon enter here. I find it very difficult to accept Ukraine entry into NATO,” said the petista advisor.
Regarding the Sino-Brazilian proposal, he stated that not only Global Southern countries showed sympathy, but now Slovakia and Hungary. With six points, the document he calls “Amorim-Wang Yi (Chancellor of China)”, name of the authors, had been widely criticized by the Ukrainians and praised by the Russians. After Trump, acceptance changed.
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But depending on the evolution of Trump’s negotiations and postures, defined by him as a “real state agent”, he can lead Kiev to reconsider the suggestion. For him, Trump also acted in search of peace possible, which brings him closer to the Brazilian position, but interested in critical minerals and businesses.
Amorim said that, therefore, Brazil should not react to the criticism of the Ukrainians to Lula’s visit to Moscow. The former Foreign Minister denied that there is image wear to Lula or loss of credibility to help mediation by gesturing the Russian side.
According to Amorim, Lula did not argue with Putin if Brazil would be accepted on a peace mission linked to the UN to Ukraine. The idea has been ventilated behind the scenes of diplomacy in New York, and European countries considered Russia to accept if Brazil and China participate with military personnel. According to him, the country can prepare if there is time.
