On the night of May 6, the complementary bill (PLP) 177 of 2023 which increases the number of federal deputies from 513 to 531.
The proposal is a response to the decision of the Supreme Court in a direct action of unconstitutionality by omission 38, presented by Pará, in order to correct the proportion between the population of the states and the size of the benches according to the 2022 census and prevent the omission from perpetuating.
The Federal Constitution of 1988 established that the representation in the House must be proportional to the population of each state, respecting the minimum limit of 8 and maximum of 70 deputies per federative unit.
The final number of chairs and update rules were in charge of complementary legislation.
The current rule defines that the number of federal deputies does not exceed 513 and that the benches are proportional to the state’s population and updated the year before the elections, based on IBGE data. This update, however, was never done – which motivated the intervention of the judiciary.
Based on studies on the subject, or compared to other liberal democracies, there is no relevant anomaly in the new size proposed for the House. However, the larger problem, of the proportionality of the distribution of chairs, was not clearly faced in the distribution proposed by the approved project.
There is no unique response on how to measure proportionality, and the greatest disproportion is due to the constitutional limits of deputies. This is why São Paulo has 21.9% of the population, according to Census 2022, and 13.7% of deputies, while Roraima has 0.3% of the inhabitants and 1.5% of the mayor.
The maximum and minimum, however, are not under discussion at this time, and there are ways to make distribution fairer even respecting these limits.
Although PLP 177/2023 proposes a periodic update methodology, it was not applied to its initial redistribution.
The result is that the composition of the state benches suggested there makes the Brazilian legislature more disproportionate than if the update formula provided for in the same project applied, either with the 513 chairs, or with the increase to 531 chairs, based on the population indicated in the 2022 census.
We present simulations data and results based on different numbers of chairs and population parameters at the link
We recognize that the increase in chairs is not essential to correct distortion. But it seems to be the most politically viable output for the deputies, as it minimizes the risks to the current mandate holders, who fear greater difficulties in 2026 if their state benches are reduced.
Our simulation, considering 531 deputies and the formula indicated in the approved bill, points out that the absolute losses of some states would be mitigated in relation to the proposed by the Supreme Court in case the omission of Congress persists: Rio de Janeiro would lose only two deputies (not four), Paraíba, Piauí and Rio Grande do Sul would lose one (not two), and Pernambuco and Bahia would keep their banks without any loss.
What is unclear is whether Brazilian society, which demonstrates low levels of confidence in, supports this increase.
The budget impact – in about 1% of the current annual budget of the House of Representatives – is relatively small, especially in view of the importance of the principle of representativeness. Still, it is a choice that requires clear public justification, under penalty of expanding the gap between representatives and represented.
