India and Pakistan apparently moved away from the abyss again. But there was so much again in the chaotic four -day confrontation among nuclear weapons armed enemies, and so many of the underlying accelerators remain volatile that there is little to suggest that the truce represents a return to the former restraint patterns.
A new generation of military technology has fueled a dizzying air climbing. Waves of anti -aircraft air and saved with modern weapons have prepared the scenario. Soon, armed drones first came together along the old control line in Caxemira – hundreds of them in the sky, probing the defenses of each nation and attacking without risk to any pilot.
Then the missiles and drones began to cross the border areas and deeply enter the territories of India and Pakistan, directly reaching air and defense, generating severe threats and the highest level of military alert.
Only then international diplomacy-a crucial factor in the previous withdrawals between India and Pakistan-seemed to be seriously engaged, in what seemed to be the last minute before the catastrophe. In a new global chapter defined by dangerous conflicts, distracted leaders and a sense of international responsibility to retreat to maintain peace, the security network never seemed so thin.
“Historically returning, many of the conflicts between India and Pakistan were interrupted due to external intervention,” said Srinath Raghavan, a military historian and strategic analyst.
Mr. Raghavan noted that none of the countries have a significant military industrial basis, and the need to depend on outer weapons sales means that external pressure can have an effect. But the positions on both sides seemed more extreme this time, and India, in particular, seemed to want to see if it could achieve a different result from previous conflicts.
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“I think there is a stronger determination, it seems, by the Indian government to ensure that the Pakistani do not feel that they can simply escape or take revenge,” he said. “What is definitely part of the climb. Both sides seem to feel that they can’t let this end with the other side feeling that somehow has the advantage.”
Political realities in India and Pakistan – each dominated by an entrenched religious nationalism – remain unchanged after the fighting. And this creates perhaps the most powerful boost for the kind of confrontation that could get out of control again.
Pakistan is dominated by a military stablishment that stifled civil institutions and is directed by a hardline general who is a product of decades of efforts to islamizing the armed forces. And the triumphalism of Hindu nationalism, which is reformulating the secular democracy of India as an openly Hindu state, has boosted an inflexible approach to Pakistan.
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On Sunday, there was still no evidence that Pakistan or India could repair their diplomatic relations, which were already cold even before military climbing, or relieve visa restrictions on each other’s citizens. And India did not seem to be backward from its statement that it would no longer fulfill a treaty on rivers between the two countries – a critical factor for Pakistan, which said any effort to block water flows would be seen as an act of war.
The spark for the last fighting was a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Caxemira that killed 26 civilians on April 22. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers. Pakistan denied any involvement.
The crisis ended a six-year period when the Indian government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi adopted a two-front approach to Pakistan: trying to isolate her neighbor with minimal contact and increase safety at home, especially through intense militarization on the Indian side of Caxemira.
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Establishing a staggered military action standard in response to terrorist attacks in 2016 and 2019, India placed itself in a maximum response position. After last month’s attack, political pressure to deliver a powerful military response was immediate.
But the options for the Indian army were not easy. He publicly dealt with the last direct confrontation with Pakistan in 2019, when a transport helicopter fell and when the Pakistani forces overthrew an Indian hunting aircraft from the Soviet era and captured their pilot.
Mr. Modi’s effort to modernize his army ever since, investing billions of dollars, has been hindered by supply restrictions caused by the Russian war in Ukraine. India was also stressed out of a four -year confrontation on its Himalayan border with China, where tens of thousands of troops remained on the way up to a few months ago.
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When it was time to use the force against Pakistan last week, India wanted to leave behind that lost prestige and those difficult difficulties. She also sought to show a new more muscular approach on the world stage, able to exert her growing economic and diplomatic power, but also military strength.
Western diplomats, former officials and analysts who studied the dynamics between India and Pakistan said India came out of this last conflict seeming assertive and aggressive, and perhaps established some new level of dissuasion with Pakistan.
But the way the fight unfolded did not suggest improvement in the operational or strategic level, they said.
In its initial round of air strikes on Wednesday, India reached targets more deeply within the enemy territory than it had done in decades and, according to reports, reached locations close enough from facilities associated with terrorist groups to claim victory.
Each day that followed was filled with statements from both India and Pakistan suggesting that they had achieved what they wanted and were ready for containment. But each night was marked by violence and climbing. Saved from more traditional artillery along the border continued to intensify, resulting in the highest loss of lives. And the drone and air attacks became bolder and bolder until some of the most sensitive military and strategic places of each country were being targeted.
What finally seemed to trigger the intense diplomatic pressure of the United States, with clear help in the land of Saudis and other Gulf states, was not only that the targets were approaching sensitive places – but also what the next step in a quick climbing ladder to two alarmed nuclear powers could mean.
Just before a ceasefire was announced on Saturday night, Indian authorities already signaled that any new terrorist attack against India’s interests would be responded with similar levels of strength.
“We leave India’s future history to ask which political-strategic advantages, if any, were obtained,” said General Ved Prakash Malik, former Indian army chief.
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