A report prepared by the State Finance Secretariat contradicts that described by the governor (Republicans) on the impacts of the government’s tariff in Paulista.
The document – named for the LDO (Budgetary Guidelines Law) project sent to the Legislative Assembly at the end of April – points out that the international scenario is “driven” and that the collection of ICMS, the state’s main tribute, may oscillate with the weakening of global trade.
“The world is still reorganizing and expecting the effects of Trump’s management rates,” says the tax risk report, which also cites regional wars and tensions as points of tension.
According to the text, this unstable environment generates volatility and uncertainties that pressure production, transportation and inflation cost. Although ICMS does not focus on exports, the farm points out that the export activity moves the production chain and drives wages and profits.
The growing use of imported inputs by the São Paulo industry also makes internal prices more sensitive to the external scenario, according to the document.
“Adverse fluctuations in the world economy are increasingly transmitted to the São Paulo economy and especially to its industrial base,” the report says.
In the opposite sense, Tarcisio, who praised the election of the Republican, days after the announcement of the tariff, which the measures created “opportunities.”
“Of course the American is looking at his interest. It disrupts the international trade a little, but we have to know how to enjoy,” he said.
According to the time, Brazil would have “the whole chance to take advantage of the situation.”
“If we know how to use it as an opportunity, it will win many markets in Europe, Asia,” he said.
The governor, political godson of (), celebrated in January the possession of Trump with a video on the nets in which he wears the cap with the phrase “Make America Great Again” (“Make the United States big again”), the Republican emblem.
In early April, how much Trump announced a 10% rate for Brazilian products in the US, Tarcisio. He talked about the subject after an event at the Bandeirantes Palace to extol the coffee industry – an export gave the financial base for the development of the state.
The United States is the main destination of exports, according to the Ministry of Development. By 2024, the state sold US $ 13.6 billion (R $ 77 billion) to the US, especially airplanes, engineering equipment and orange juices. For China, the value was US $ 8.3 billion (R $ 47 billion). Considering Brazil as a whole, China is the main commercial partner.
In addition to praising the US president, Tarcisio also supported the posture of (PT) in the face of tariff, classifying it as “cautious”.
By note, the Bandeirantes Palace denied that there is contradiction between the governor’s political discourse and the technical analysis of the farm. The two manifestations “are not divergent, but complementary,” says the text.
“The geopolitical conjuncture can impact on economic dynamics, which is considered to adopt conservative estimates in the elaboration of budget parts, considering the tax rules and high levels of binding of the public budget in Brazil,” follows the note. “Still, it can also be a catalyst for expanding agreements and negotiations with new markets,” the text concludes.
