The president of the United States, Donald Trump, begins on Monday the first tour on the outside of his second term, which will take him to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates. Its objective is to announce an avalanche of agreements, especially economic, that allow it to boast of its negotiator skills. But the trip occurs at a turbulent geopolitical moment, while the United States tries to close a nuclear agreement with Iran, it is uncertain, and the pact with the Hutis rebels in Yemen to suspend their attacks in the Red Sea is still surrounded by questions. This Sunday the negotiators of Washington and Tehran have celebrated their fourth round of contacts.
For Trump, the first results have even come to take off. High American positions have reported this Sunday to the ABC television network that the president plans to accept what is possibly the most expensive foreign gift ever received by an US government, and that he raises serious ethical questions: a luxury Boeing 747 plane, a gift from the Catarí royal family, which is sold new for about 400 million dollars (355 million euros). The Republican intends to use it as his presidential plane Air Force One.
That the Persian Gulf is the stage of this first tour is no accident. Trump maintains excellent relations with the monarchies of the region. . The president’s children have important businesses and projects in the area. For the Republican, these countries are economic and strategic partners with which he feels more personal affinity than even with the traditional allies of the United States in Europe. Saudi Arabia, great economic power, it was already, in 2017, when it was released in office.
“President Trump goes to the Gulf because it is his favorite place,” says the vice president of the think tank CSIS in Washington, Jon Alterman. “His hosts will be generous and hospitable, eager to sign agreements. They will flatter him instead of criticizing him … and the Gulf is the dream of a real estate promoter, with marshes and sand dunes transformed into resort complexes of apartments, sources, shopping centers, owned by people with connections with the government. In his head, it is the world as it should be,” he adds.
This time, unlike the first trip, Israel will not be included in the stops. The relations between Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamín Netanyahu, do not cross their best moment. In the Israeli government, Washington’s agreement with the Hutíes has not sat well, which does not force the rebels to cease their missile releases against Israel. And vice versa, in the US capital, the signs that their ally can consider a more extensive invasion of.
Elliott Abrams, former Deputy Counselor of National Security of George W. Bush and now in the Laboratory of Ideas Foreign Relations Council (CFR), points out: “Israelis are concerned that the agreement with the hutis can serve as a model for an agreement in the negotiations with Iran, which also leaves them exposed to them to danger. And, of course, Gaza worries and how I can evolve the US position. that there is some tension … [Israel] He knows that Trump is going to spend a week at the Gulf hearing of Gaza, Gaza, Gaza, every day. So it is not the best time in relations between the USA and Israel, or between Trump and Israel. ”
Artificial intelligence, semiconductors and rare earths
The first stop will be Saudi Arabia, where the heir prince, Mohamed Bin Salmán, has already implied his intention to invest 600,000 million dollars in the United States and subsequently expand them to one billion. Qatar and Arab Emirates are preparing to sign similar agreements. “Clearly, what [Trump] It seeks to get all this out of this are agreements, the announcement of multiple multimillionaire agreements, ”says Steve Cook, an expert in the Middle East of Cf. Gulf members are interested in areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors or rare earths, among others.
Saudi Arabia is also interested in an agreement with the United States for the development of a civil nuclear program. During the mandate of Joe Biden it was the carrot that Washington branded to try to persuade the Saudi government of accessing an approach to Israel; Without normalization, there would be no nuclear agreement. But Riad closes an approach to the Netanyahu government, so Trump could indicate a change in that position during his visit.
On the tour, according to US media, Trump could also announce a symbolic step but a concession of great weight in the area: the change of name of the Persian Gulf to “Gulf of Arabia” in the official statements of the United States. Washington would thus align with the denomination already used by Arab countries in the region, in a step that would generate a strong discomfort in Tehran at a time when the Islamic Republic and the North American country try to close an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program.
This Sunday the negotiators completed the fourth round of conversations, in Oman, before the watchful eye of the United States Arab allies in the Gulf. Unlike Barack Obama’s era, when they looked at distrust of any kind of agreement between Washington and Tehran, Emirates and Saudi Arabia now cautiously support those negotiations. “In part, because they have more confidence in Trump. In part, because. And they fear that a military action can hit them,” he says.
The Gulf governments will try to clarify during Trump’s visit what are the priorities of the Republican Administration in these negotiations, so far scarce in details.
“The great objective of the Gulf states will be to determine what are, not only the policies of the United States, but their priorities. There are many actors in the administration, and it is not clear to what extent the traditional protagonists, whether the National Security Council, the State Department or the Pentagon, have influence on the policies that are launched. Not even on those that directly affect them,” says Daniel Byman, director for conflicts and terrorism of the CSIS.
